Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/25/24
Edward Cabrera gets the start for the Marlins on Wednesday, and he is facing off against Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins. The game is set to start at 7:40 PM ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The money line odds have the Twins at -192 compared to the Marlins at +161. The over/under line is currently 8 runs.
Minnesota comes into the game on a three-game losing streak and is 81-76 overall. They are 4th in the AL Central, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East with an overall record of 58-99.
MIAMI MARLINS VS MINNESOTA TWINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 8 Runs
This game will be played at Target Field at 7:40 ET on Wednesday, September 25th.
HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS TWINS:
- We have the Twins winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Miami pulled off the biggest upset of the day in the last game of this Marlins vs Twins series. The Marlins were at +207 on the money line and still picked up a win. Both offenses scored one run in the first inning, and the Marlins scored the game’s final run in their half of their 5th, picking up the 4-1 win.
Ryan Weathers started for the Marlins, going just five innings but giving up just one run and striking out two. He picked up a win in the game, while Jesus Tinoco got the save. Bailey Ober only went five innings for the Twins, giving up four runs on eight hits.
Jonah Bride was the difference for the Marlins, as he homered, scored three times, and drove in two runs. Xavier Edwards and Nick Fortes each had two hits and an RBI. Byron Buxton had a two-hit game for the Twins.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is 58-99 overall this season, and they are 34.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone just 18-34 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are on the road today, where they are 28-48 this season.
This year, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-14. As for their record as the underdog, they are 54-85. Miami has an overall series record of 11-30-9 and have dropped four straight series.
When the Marlins are on the road, they have been a good bet against the run line, going 39-37. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been a good bet as the underdog, going 72-67. They have been a poor bet as the favorite, going 2-16. On average, they have been outscored by 1.4 runs per game, with a scoring margin of -1.0 runs per game on the road.
The Marlins have played in 86 games with over/under lines set at 8 or higher, and they have gone 18-13-2 in those contests. Their games have had an average combined run total of 9.0 runs, and their overall over/under record for the season is 82-69.
Miami is sending Edward Cabrera to the mound today vs. the Twins, and he comes in with a record of 4-8 and an ERA of 5.12. So far this year, he has made 19 starts, and opponents have a batting average of .215 vs. Cabrera. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 10.05 strikeouts per nine innings. Cabrera’s last outing was a rough one, as he gave up seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work vs. the Dodgers. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per game. However, at home, they are 17th in the league at 4.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 13th in the league, and have the 24th ranked slugging percentage in the league.
Jake Burger is the Marlins’ top home run hitter this season and is also leading the team in RBIs. He comes into the game with three homers in his last nine games but is batting just .235 during that stretch. Jonah Bride has gone 11/34 in his last nine games with three homers and five RBIs. Otto Lopez has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/31 with one homer in his last nine games.
Twins Records & Stats
Minnesota is 81-76 overall and trails the Guardians by 9.5 games in the AL Central. The Twins have dropped three straight games, and they are 4th in the division, two games behind the Tigers for 3rd place. So far, they have gone 29-23 against other teams in the AL Central.
At home, the Twins are 42-34 this season compared to a 39-42 mark on the road. Minnesota has lost three straight games as the favorite, and they are 64-46 when favored this season. As the underdog, the Twins are 17-30, and their overall series record is 26-20-4. Minnesota lost the series opener vs. the Marlins and are just 3-7 over their last ten games.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 72-85, but they have been better on the road than at home. The Twins are just 32-44 vs. the run line at home, compared to 40-41 on the road. As a favorite, they are just 47-63 vs. the run line, but as an underdog, they are 25-22. Their average run differential in games they win is +3.7, while it is -3.7 in games they lose.
Minnesota’s games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and the Twins have a 79-72 O/U record. When the O/U line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over 14 times, under 22 times, and pushed 5 times. 38.2% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 8 runs, while 35.7% have had lower lines.
Through 27 starts, Simeon Woods Richardson has a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 4.00. His WHIP for the season is 1.25. Looking back at his last outing, Woods Richardson finished with a no-decision against the Guardians. In that start, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that outing, he had lost three straight starts. The right-hander has given up at least one homer in each of his last three starts. Woods Richardson has made seven quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 4.42 compared to 4.53 on the road.
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs this season, with 22, and is also at the top of the team’s RBI standings with 65. However, he is batting just .234 for the season. Willi Castro is batting .250 for the season and has gone deep 12 times, which is 7th in the league. Castro has also driven in 59 runs, which is the 3rd most in the league.
Over his last eight games, Matt Wallner has gone 9/24, and Willi Castro has also been swinging a hot bat, going 8/28 in that stretch. Byron Buxton comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak, and Austin Martin has a three-game streak going.