Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction 7/26/24
From American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have the Marlins and Brewers facing off in an NL matchup. This one gets started at 8:10 PM ET and will be televised on BSWI. The Brewers are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -227, while the Marlins are at +189. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Milwaukee will send Freddy Peralta to the mound vs. a Marlins team that is starting Trevor Rogers. The Brewers are 59-43 and have won two straight, while the Marlins are 37-66 and are 5th in the NL East.
MIAMI MARLINS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs
This game will be played at American Family Field at 8:10 ET on Friday, July 26th.
HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS BREWERS:
- We have the Brewers winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 7-6 loss to the Orioles, Josh Bell went 2/5 with a homer and two RBIs, and the Marlins scored six runs on nine hits. However, they couldnjson’t close things out, and Calvin Faucher took the loss out of the bullpen. The Marlins were also +178 on the money line going into this game.
Roddery Muñoz got the start for the Marlins and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up six earned runs on six hits. Miami’s offense scored their six runs in the 2nd, 6th, and 7th innings. Xavier Edwards and Bryan De La Cruz each had two hits. Starter Josh Bell hit a homer in the 2nd.
Miami will be on the road to take on the Brewers with an overall record of 37-66, which has them 5th in the NL East, 27.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 9-21 in divisional games. The Marlins won their series vs. the Orioles and come into today’s game with an even 5-5 record over their last 10.
At home, the Marlins are 22-34 this year, and they are just 15-32 on the road. Miami has really struggled as the favorite this year, going just 4-13. As the underdog, they are 33-53. The Marlins’ overall series record is 9-21-3 this year.
The Marlins have a run line record of 48-55 this season, and they have covered the run line in three straight games as the underdog. Miami has an average run margin of -1.4 runs per game, and they are 23-24 against the run line on the road this season. The Marlins are just 2-15 against the run line as the favorite, but they have a winning record of 46-40 against the run line as the underdog.
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Marlins games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 56-45. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Marlins have gone over the total in 14 of 20 games. Overall, 73.8% of Miami’s games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and they are currently on a four-game over streak.
Miami is sending left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound today vs. the Brewers. He has made 20 starts this year and has a record of 1-9 with an ERA of 4.59. Rogers has yet to win a game at home, coming in with a record of 0-5 and 5.18 at home. On the road, he is 1-4 with a 6.06 ERA. Rogers has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up a run. In that start vs. the Mets, he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up just one earned run. He finished with a no-decision in that outing.
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is the 2nd worst mark in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. Miami’s offense has been a little better at home, where they are averaging 4 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .236 and have the league’s worst walk rate. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in terms of slugging percentage and OPS.
Bryan De La Cruz has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 17 homers is the best mark on the team and the 12th best in the league. De La Cruz is batting just .241 this season, but he has gone 7/21 in his last six games. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also been a solid power threat, as he has 13 homers and is batting .248 for the season. Chisholm Jr. comes into the game as the Marlins’ current leader in RBIs (50).
Brewers Records & Stats
The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Cubs, closing out their series with a 3-2 win. After allowing one run to the Cubs in the bottom of the first, the Brewers responded with a run of their own. Milwaukee went on to add another run in the 6th inning and closed things out with Joel Payamps picking up the save in the 9th.
Rob Zastryzny got the start for the Brewers, going only one inning. He was pulled after the first inning, as Milwaukee’s offense scored the go-ahead run in the top of the first. Jakob Junis got the win out of the bullpen, going three innings and not giving up a run. He also had three strikeouts.
With a record of 59-43, the Brewers lead the NL Central by six games over the Cardinals. Milwaukee will take on the Marlins at home today, and they are on a two-game winning streak, taking the final two games of their series vs. the Cubs. So far, they have gone 23-13 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Brewers are 29-17 this year, and they have gone 30-26 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee is 33-22 this year and 26-21 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 19-11-3 this year and have won two straight series.
The Brewers have a run line record of 54-48 this season, with an average run differential of +0.8 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 31-25 compared to 23-23 at home. As the underdog, Milwaukee is 32-15 vs. the run line, while as the favorite, they are just 22-33.
The Milwaukee Brewers have played in 75 games this season where the over/under line was set higher than 7.5 runs, and they have gone over the total in 54 of those games. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 54-44 overall. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over is 16-6 in those games. The under has hit in their last three games.
Freddy Peralta is starting for the Brewers today and comes into the game with a record of 6-5 and an ERA of 3.88. So far this season, he has made 20 starts, and opponents are batting .210 off the right-hander. Peralta has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 11.39 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Peralta went six innings, giving up no earned runs and two hits. He finished with eight strikeouts in the outing. Peralta didn’t allow a homer in that start, but in the three outings before that, he had given up a homer.
Heading into today’s game, Willy Adames is not only the Brewers’ leader in home runs, but he is also on an eight-game hitting streak. Over his last six games, Adames is batting .435 with two homers and five RBIs. Rhys Hoskins and Adames are 1-2 on the team’s home run leaderboard, but Hoskins is batting just .212 for the season.
As a team, the Brewers are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they have the league’s 5th best team batting average and are 2nd in on-base percentage. Milwaukee’s offense has also been good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 18th in the league in this category.