Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Betting Pick & Prediction 12/29/24
The Dolphins are favored on the road with a money line of -296 as they take on the Browns at 4:05 ET on Sunday, December 29th. The Browns are +240 on the money line, and the point spread has the Dolphins -6.5. The over/under line is currently at 40 points for this week 17 AFC matchup. You can catch this one on CBS.
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cleveland Browns +6.5
This game will be played at Huntington Bank Field at 4:05 ET on Sunday, December 29th.
WHY BET THE CLEVELAND BROWNS:
- We have the Browns winning this one by a score of 22 to 13
- Not only do we have the Browns winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +6.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 40 points
Will The Dolphins Win As Road Favorites?
Miami snapped a two-game losing streak in week 16, defeating the 49ers 29-17 to improve to 7-8. The Dolphins entered the game as 1.5-point underdogs but came away with a 12-point win, outscoring San Francisco 16-7 in the second half. The combined 46 points narrowly went over the 44-point line. Prior to this, Miami had lost to the Texans in week 15 and beaten the Jets in week 14.
Heading into week 17, the Dolphins have an 8.3% chance of making the playoffs and are 14th in our power rankings. They are 2-5 on the road and 5-3 at home. Against the spread, Miami is 6-9, with a -1.6 average scoring margin. Their O/U record is 7-8, with their games averaging 42.3 points.
Heading into week 17, the Dolphins are 17th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 20.3 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They are 17th in the league in yards per game (327.9) and 15th in passing yards per game (222.1) on 34.9 attempts per game. Miami ranks 15th in rushing attempts per game and 24th in rushing yards, averaging 105.7 per contest. They are converting 38.1% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 17th in the NFL, and they are also 17th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 16, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 215 yards and a touchdown, completing 22 of 34 passes without an interception. De’Von Achane rushed for 120 yards on 17 carries and also led the team in receiving with 6 catches for 70 yards. Miami scored 10 points in the 4th quarter and converted 1 of 3 red zone attempts in their win over the 49ers.
In their 29-17 win over the 49ers, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 374 yards, but they did a good job on third downs, allowing just a 38.5% conversion rate. Miami defended the run well, allowing 81 yards on 18 attempts, which is 4.5 yards per attempt. They also came up with three sacks and an interception.
Against the pass, the Dolphins allowed 293 yards, with San Francisco completing 65% of their passes. However, Miami’s defense tightened up when needed, allowing just two touchdowns and keeping the 49ers to 2-of-7 on fourth down.
Are The Browns Going Win In At Upset At Huntington Bank Field
With their playoff chances at 0.0%, the Browns head into week 17 ranked 23rd in our NFL power rankings. Cleveland is currently on a four-game losing streak, including a 24-6 loss to the Bengals in week 16. This puts their record at 3-12, leaving them 4th in the AFC North. In division games, the Browns are 2-3, with an overall conference record of 3-7.
Against the spread, the Browns are 4-11, with an average scoring margin of -9 points per game. They have also lost four straight ATS. Cleveland is 0-4 as a favorite and 4-7 as an underdog. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the under hitting in three consecutive games.
Heading into week 17, the Browns rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 16.3 points per game, which is 30th in the NFL. They lead the league in passing attempts per game (38.7) but are only 19th in passing yards, with 211.3 per game. On the ground, they rank 27th in rushing yards per game (95.9) on 22.9 attempts per game, which ranks 24th. Cleveland has struggled on third down, converting just 28.4% of their attempts, ranking 31st in the league. However, they lead the NFL in red zone conversion percentage at 61.3%.
In week 16, Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 157 yards on 20 of 34 passing, with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns. Jerome Ford led the rushing attack with 92 yards on 11 carries, while David Njoku had 8 receptions for 66 yards. The Browns scored all 6 of their points in the 3rd quarter, failing to score in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters. They converted 3 of 12 third-down attempts and went 1 for 3 in the red zone.
In their 24-6 loss to the Bengals, the Browns’ defense gave up 210 yards through the air, with Cincinnati completing 76.7% of their passes. Cleveland struggled to defend the big play, as the Bengals finished with three passing touchdowns. Despite this, the Browns’ defense did manage to come up with four sacks in the game.
On the ground, the Browns allowed 116 rushing yards on just 22 attempts, with the Bengals averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Cleveland also struggled on third downs, allowing the Bengals to convert 36.4% of their third down opportunities.