Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Prediction 11/3/24
The Dolphins and Bills are set to kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 3rd at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. Buffalo is the heavy favorite with a money line of -278 and a point spread of -6. Miami’s money line odds are +224, and the over/under line is set at 50 points. You can catch this week nine AFC East matchup on CBS.
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Dolphins +6
This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 3rd.
WHY BET THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:
- We have the Bills winning this one by a score of 27 to 24
- Even though we like the Bills to win, our ATS pick is to take the Dolphins at +6
- Look for this game to go over the line of 50 points
Will The Dolphins Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
With a 2-5 record, the Dolphins sit 25th in our power rankings and have just a 7.4% chance of making the playoffs. Miami is 10th in the AFC and 2nd in the AFC East, where they are 1-1. They are 1-3 at home and 1-2 on the road.
After beating the Patriots in week 5, Miami has now lost two straight, including a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals in week 8. The Dolphins were 4.5-point favorites but couldn’t get the win, and the 55 combined points went over the 46.5-point line. Miami is 1-6 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of -8.6.
Heading into week 9, the Dolphins are 29th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 13.9 points per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. They’re 21st in yards per game with 318, and their passing game ranks 25th with 186.3 yards per game on 32.1 attempts per contest. On the ground, Miami is 9th in rushing yards per game, also ranking 9th in attempts. They are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and 16th in red zone attempts, but they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 77.8% of their trips, which ranks 3rd in the NFL.
In week 8, Miami scored 27 points in a loss to the Cardinals, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 234 yards and a touchdown on 28/38 passing. De’Von Achane led the team with 97 rushing yards on 10 carries, while Tyreek Hill had 6 catches for 72 yards. Miami converted 11 of 15 3rd-down attempts and scored on 3 of their 4 red zone trips.
In their 28-27 loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 307 passing yards and 82 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Arizona finished with 389 total yards, averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt and converting on 53.8% of their third down attempts. Miami struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and had a tackles for loss differential of -3.
Miami’s defense gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed Arizona quarterbacks to complete 72.2% of their passes. The Dolphins will look to improve defensively in their next game after this disappointing performance.
Are The Bills Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
With three straight wins, the Bills sit at 6-2 and hold the top spot in the AFC East. After back-to-back losses in weeks 4 and 5, Buffalo bounced back with wins over the Jets, Titans, and Seahawks. In week 8, they covered the 3-point spread with a 21-point win over Seattle. The combined score of 41 points fell short of the 45-point line.
Heading into week 9, the Bills rank 3rd in our power rankings and have a 98.6% chance of winning the division. Their O/U record is 4-4, and they are 5-3 against the spread, including three straight ATS wins. They are 4-1 as favorites and 1-2 as underdogs.
Josh Allen has been on a roll, posting passer ratings of 102 in week 8, 116 in week 7, and 127 in week 6. In his most recent outing against Seattle, he threw for 283 yards, completing 24 of 34 passes with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Buffalo’s receiving corps has also been stepping up, with Khalil Shakir leading the way in week 8 with 9 catches for 107 yards. Before that, Keon Coleman had a 125-yard game in week 7, and Ray Davis had 55 receiving yards in week 6.
Heading into week 9, the Bills rank 5th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 28.8. They are 14th in passing yards per game (214.2) and 12th in rushing yards per game (122.2). Despite ranking 2nd in red zone attempts, they are 28th in conversion percentage, scoring on just 5.9% of their trips inside the 20.
The Bills’ defense was dominant in their 31-10 win over the Seahawks, holding Seattle to just 32 yards rushing on 17 attempts. Buffalo defended the pass well, allowing only 201 yards through the air and not giving up any passing touchdowns. They also intercepted one pass and limited Seattle to a 14.3% conversion rate on third down.
Buffalo’s defense pressured the quarterback consistently, winning the QB hit differential by five. They also had five tackles for loss in addition to their one sack. Despite allowing a completion percentage of 72.4%, the Bills kept the Seahawks out of the end zone for most of the game.