Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 5/11/24
At 8:40 PM from PETCO Park in San Diego, we have an NL West matchup between the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles comes in with a record of 26-14, while the Padres are 21-20. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and the Dodgers are the favorite on the money line at -147.
James Paxton is going for the Dodgers, and he is facing off against Matt Waldron for the Padres. You can catch this one on TV on the MLB Network.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline +122
This game will be played at PETCO Park at 8:40 ET on Saturday, May 11th.
HOW TO BET THE DODGERS VS PADRES:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Padres to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
San Diego picked up a 2-1 win over the Dodgers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres offense only had three hits in the game but still picked up the win thanks to a good outing from Michael King, who went seven innings and gave up just two hits and no earned runs.
On the other side, Tyler Glasnow started for the Dodgers and gave up just one hit and one earned run in seven innings of work. He finished the game with 10 strikeouts but took the loss.
Luis Campusano was the difference for the Padres, as he homered twice, scored three times, and finished with two RBIs. Shohei Ohtani did the most damage for the Dodgers, going 2/4 with two RBIs.
Dodgers Records & Stats
Los Angeles is 26-14 overall and leads the NL West by 5.5 games over the Padres. So far, they have gone 7-5 in divisional matchups. The Dodgers have been really good in series this year, putting together an 8-5 mark, and they have won five straight series.
At home, the Dodgers have gone 15-8 this year, and they have been good on the road, entering today’s game with an 11-6 mark. This year, the Dodgers have been the favorite in all but two of their games, and they are 25-13 in those matchups. As the road favorite, the Dodgers are 11-5 this year. Their overall record is impressive, and they have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games. Today, they will be looking to bounce back after dropping the series opener vs. the Padres.
When betting the Dodgers on the run line this season, they have been a solid play, going 21-19. The Dodgers have been particularly good on the road, going 10-7 on the run line. They have an average run margin of 1.8 runs per game this season, and their average run margin in winning games is 4.1 runs per game.
The Dodgers have had a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and the over/under line for their games has been set at an average of 9 runs. Their over/under record for the season is 22-18, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 2-2. So far this season, 72.5% of their games have had over/under lines set below 9 runs.
James Paxton is looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the Braves, he only gave up five hits and issued two walks. Paxton has made six starts this year and has a record of 4-0 to go along with a 3.06 ERA. Opponents are batting .224 off the left-hander this season. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 5.01 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Paxton has issued 6.68 walks per nine innings. Per the notes, he has a BB/9 of 4.04 on the road compared to 2.25 at home.
Shohei Ohtani has been red hot for the Dodgers of late, going 8/17 in his last five games with three homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .359, which is the best mark on the team. Ohtani’s 11 homers is 2nd in the league and the top mark on the team. Teoscar Hernandez is also swinging a hot bat, going 5/16 in his last five games with three homers and six RBIs.
As a team, the Dodgers are the top-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They also lead the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Not only are they the best home run hitting team in the league, but they also have the best team batting average in the league.
Padres Records & Stats
San Diego is hosting the Dodgers today with an overall record of 21-20, which has them 2nd in the NL West. So far, they have gone 11-9 in divisional matchups and are 5.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have won two straight games and are 7-3 over their last 10.
The Padres have won three straight games at home, and they are 9-12 at home this year. On the road, San Diego is 12-8 this season. So far, they have been the favorite in 24 games, going 13-11 as the favorite. As the underdog, the Padres are 8-9 this year.
San Diego has been a strong play on the run line overall this season, going 23-18. They’ve been especially good on the run line on the road, going 16-4. However, they’ve been a poor bet at home on the run line, going just 7-14. They’ve been a better bet as the underdog, going 12-5 on the run line compared to 11-13 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8, while it’s -3.1 in losses.
San Diego’s over/under record for the season is 21-19, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. The over/under line for today’s game against the Dodgers is set at 9 runs, which is just the third time this season the Padres have had an over/under line of 9 or higher. Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and their last three games have all gone under the total, with the combined runs scored in those games being 3, 3, and 5.
Right-hander Matt Waldron gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Dodgers at home. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA. Waldron’s WHIP for the season is 1.56. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up seven earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had pitched well, allowing just one earned run in back-to-back outings. Waldron has given up at least one homer in three straight starts.
San Diego has been one of the league’s best offensive teams so far this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game and batting a collective .257, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They have also been a good home run hitting team, as their 42 homers is 8th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game.
Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been swinging the bat well for the Padres of late, with both players hitting two home runs in their last nine games, while Profar is batting .394 and Cronenworth is at .351 in this stretch. Profar’s 27 RBIs is the best mark on the team and 7th best in the league. Fernando Tatis Jr. also has seven homers this season but is batting just .250.