Liberty Flames vs UMass Minutemen Betting Pick & Prediction 11/16/24
ESPN+ will be covering the matchup between the Liberty Flames and UMass Minutemen as the game kicks off at 12:00 ET from Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst. Liberty is favored at -13.5 points, with the over/under line set at 52.5 points. The Flames enter the game with a 6-2 record, while UMass is just 2-7 on the season.
LIBERTY FLAMES VS UMASS MINUTEMEN BETTING PICK
The Pick: Liberty Flames -13.5
This game will be played at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, November 16th.
WHY BET THE LIBERTY FLAMES:
- We have the Liberty Flames winning this one by a score of 31 to 17
- Not only do we have the Liberty Flames winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -13.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 52.5 points
Will The Liberty Flames Win As Road Favorites?
Liberty enters Week 12 with a 6-2 record, and they are 2-0 on the road this season. They are 100% bowl-eligible, but their chances of winning Conference USA stand at 3.6%. The Flames have been favored in five of their eight games, going 4-1 as the favorite.
Liberty’s average scoring margin is +8.2 points per game, and they are 2-3 against the spread this season. As the favorite, they are 2-3 ATS, with a 1-2 record at home and 1-1 on the road.
This week’s over/under line is 52.5 points, lower than their average line of 56.8 points. Liberty’s over/under record is 1-3-1, with their games averaging 53.5 points per contest.
Liberty’s offense has leaned heavily on their ground game, ranking 14th nationally with 217.3 rushing yards per game. Quinton Cooley leads the way with 851 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored 8 touchdowns. Overall, Liberty is 55th in scoring, with 27.4 points per game, and we have them ranked 81st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12.
Kaidon Salter, Liberty’s quarterback, has thrown for 1,581 yards, with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 100. Liberty ranks 110th in passing yards per game. On third downs, they have been efficient, converting 47.6% of their attempts, which ranks 14th nationally.
Liberty’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 22nd nationally by allowing just 20.1 points per game. Against Middle Tennessee, they gave up 17 points but held the Blue Raiders to 88 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Through the air, Liberty allowed 263 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Opponents have averaged 199 passing yards per game against Liberty, completing 61.3% of their throws. On the ground, Liberty has allowed 147.1 rushing yards per game on an average of 35.2 attempts.
Are The UMass Minutemen Going Win In At Upset At Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
UMass enters Week 12 with a 2-7 record, hosting Liberty. They are ranked 129th in our CFB power rankings and have no chance of reaching bowl eligibility this season.
They’ve been favored in just one game this year, going 0-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is -12.4 points, and they are 1-4-1 against the spread.
The over/under line for this week is 52.5 points. UMass games have averaged 50.9 points, with their over/under record sitting at 3-3.
UMass’ offense has struggled this season, averaging just 19.2 points per game, which ranks 88th in the nation. They are 100th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. Their rushing game has been their focus, with 39.1 attempts per game, ranking 27th nationally, but they are only averaging 143.6 rushing yards per game.
CJ Hester leads the team with 349 rushing yards, averaging 4 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns. Taisun Phommachanh has thrown for 1,590 yards, with eight touchdowns and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 78. Jakobie Keeney-James has 595 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
UMass’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 31.7 points per game. In their recent 45-20 loss to Mississippi State, they gave up 45 points, though they allowed just 271 total yards, including 92 passing yards and forced one interception.
Opponents have averaged 180.9 rushing yards per game against UMass, ranking them 133rd nationally. However, UMass ranks 16th in the country in passing yards allowed, giving up just 164.7 yards per game through the air.