Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 9/28/24
At 7:20 PM ET, the Braves and Royals will square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154. The money line odds for a Royals win are at +129, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
Reynaldo Lopez is starting for the Braves, while the Royals are going with Seth Lugo. The Braves come in with a record of 87-71 and have won four straight, while the Royals are 85-75 and are 3rd in the AL Central. BSKC is carrying this one on TV.
ATLANTA BRAVES VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -154
This game will be played at Truist Park at 7:20 ET on Saturday, September 28th.
HOW TO BET THE ROYALS VS BRAVES:
- We have the Braves winning by a score of 6 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Braves to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over
The most recent game o of this Braves vs Royals series came right down to the end, as the Royals rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 3-2 at home. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -189 on the money line.
Max Fried pitched well for the Braves in this one, going 8 2/3 innings and striking out nine without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Raisel Iglesias closed things out. Brady Singer had a decent outing for the Royals, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work.
Sean Murphy provided the big hit for the Braves, as he homered in the second inning and finished with two RBIs. Michael Massey went 2/4 with two doubles for the Royals.
Royals Records & Stats
The Royals are 85-75 overall and trail the Guardians by seven games in the AL Central. So far, they have gone 33-19 in divisional matchups. Kansas City will be on the road today, facing the Braves, and they are 0-1 in the series vs. the Braves.
Kansas City has dropped three straight games as the underdog and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall. As the favorite, the Royals are 50-31 this year and 35-44 as the underdog. They have been good at home, going 45-36, and have gone 40-39 on the road.
When the Royals are on the road, they have a run line record of 44-35, which is a winning percentage of 55.7%. Their average run margin in road games is +0.7 runs per game. When they are the underdog, their run line record is 46-33. Their average run margin in those games is +0.6 runs per game.
When the Royals are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs for their games. Their combined run average for the season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 69-86. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 4-16. So far this season, 81.2% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Seth Lugo gets the start for the Royals today as he faces off against the Braves on the road. This year, he has made 32 starts and has a record of 16-9 with a 3.03 ERA. Lugo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09. In his 32 appearances, he has turned in 22 quality starts and is coming off a rough outing where he gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had not given up more than one earned run in four straight outings. Lugo has done a good job of limiting walks, coming in at 2.07 per nine innings compared to 7.83 strikeouts.
As a team, the Royals are averaging 4.6 runs per game this season, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Overall, they are batting a collective .249, which is 7th in the league, and are 2nd in the league in fewest strikeouts per game. Kansas City’s team on-base percentage of .307 is 15th in the league, and their collective OPS of .712 is 14th.
Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. have been the Royals’ top power threats this season, with Perez hitting 27 homers and Witt Jr. at 32. Witt Jr. also comes into the game with a team-best batting average of .332. Hunter Renfroe has been struggling for the Royals of late, going just 2/14 in his last five games.
Braves Records & Stats
With an overall record of 87-71, the Braves are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Braves have won four straight games, and they are 27-23 against other teams in the NL East this season. The Braves took the first game of the series vs. the Royals.
As the favorite, the Braves have gone 74-53 this season, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. At home, the Braves are 42-29 as the favorite. Looking at their overall series record, the Braves are 29-17-7 and have won three straight series.
When the Braves are at home, they have been a much better bet to cover the run line than when they are on the road. Atlanta is 33-44 vs. the run line at home, compared to 43-38 on the road. The Braves have covered the run line in their last two home games and are 18-13 vs. the run line as an underdog this season.
The Atlanta Braves are 13-21 this season when playing in games with an over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The Braves have played in 115 games this season where the over/under line was set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 72.8% of their games. Overall, the Braves have an over/under record of 58-94 this season.
Braves starter Reynaldo López has been pitching well this season, coming into the game with a record of 8-5 and an ERA of 2.03. He has made 24 starts this year, and opponents are batting .219 off the right-hander. López has turned in 13 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going just one inning and not giving up a run. Before that, he had won two straight starts. López has been much better at home, with an ERA of 1.83 compared to 2.12 on the road.
Marcell Ozuna has been a big power threat for the Braves this season, as his 39 homers are 5th in the league and the top mark on the team. He also leads the team with 102 RBIs and is batting .308. Matt Olson is also a power threat for the Braves, as he has 29 homers this season and is 13th in the league in RBIs. He comes into the game with a batting average of .245.
Atlanta’s offense has been good at home this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Overall, they are 15th in the league at 4.4 runs per contest. The Braves are one of the league’s best home run hitting teams and are also near the top of the league in isolated power.