Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25

The Jaguars and Colts will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 1:00 ET on FOX. The Colts are favored at -223 on the money line, with the Jaguars at +186. This week 18 AFC South matchup has the Colts favored by -5 points, and the over/under line is set at 45 points.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +5

This game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

WHY BET THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:

• We have the Jaguars winning this one by a score of 28 to 20
• Not only do we have the Jaguars winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 45 points

Will The Jaguars Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 18, the Jaguars sit 26th in our NFL power rankings and have been eliminated from playoff contention. Jacksonville is 4-12 on the season, including a 3-2 record in the AFC South. They are 1-7 on the road and 3-5 at home. Against the spread, the Jaguars are 8-7-1, with a +6-4-1 record as underdogs and a 2-3 mark as favorites. Their O/U record is 8-8, with the under hitting in their last two games.

In week 17, Jacksonville snapped a four-game losing streak by beating the Titans 20-13. The Jaguars were 0.5-point favorites and covered the spread with the win. The combined scoring of 33 points was below the 38.5-point line. In week 16, Jacksonville lost 19-14 to the Raiders, and in week 15, they fell 32-25 to the Jets.

Heading into week 18, Jacksonville ranks 23rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 24th in the NFL in points per game (18.6) and 26th in yards per game (305.4). The Jaguars average 204.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 23rd, on 32.1 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 26th in rushing yards per game (101) on 23.8 attempts per contest. Jacksonville is 18th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate (37.4%) and 15th in red zone conversion percentage (25.5%).

In week 17, Mac Jones posted a passer rating of 122, completing 15 of 22 passes for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brian Thomas Jr. led the team with 7 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown, while Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 49 yards on 15 carries. Jacksonville converted 8 of 13 3rd-down attempts and scored on both of their red zone trips in week 17.

In their 20-13 win over the Titans, the Jaguars’ defense gave up 159 rushing yards on 30 attempts but held Tennessee to just 13 points. The Jaguars’ defense also came up with three sacks and held the Titans to 61.3% completions. They defended the pass well, allowing just 178 yards through the air and giving up only one passing touchdown.

Jacksonville’s defense was strong on third downs, allowing the Titans to convert just 50% of their third down attempts. They also came up with one interception and had more tackles for loss and quarterback hits than the Titans.

Are The Colts Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Heading into week 18, the Colts sit at 7-9, putting them 2nd in the AFC South. They rank 25th in our power rankings and have been eliminated from playoff contention. After a week 16 win over the Titans, Indy couldn’t keep up with the Giants in week 17, losing 45-33. The Colts were 7.5-point favorites in that game but couldn’t get the win, dropping their record to 7-9.

Indy is 9-7 against the spread this season, with a scoring margin of -3.3 points per game. Their O/U record is also 9-7, with the over hitting in four straight games. Colts games have averaged 47.2 points this season, compared to an average line of 44.

Heading into week 18, the Colts rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in points per game (21.9) and 15th in yards per game (328.9). Indianapolis has leaned heavily on the run game, ranking 7th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game (134.6). On the other hand, they are 27th in passing attempts and 26th in passing yards per game.

Jonathan Taylor has been a workhorse for the Colts, carrying the ball 32 times for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 17. Joe Flacco threw for 330 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, while Alec Pierce led the team with 6 catches for 122 yards.

In their most recent game, the Colts’ defense struggled to generate pressure, as they failed to record a sack and had a negative QB hit differential of -3. The Colts gave up 309 passing yards to the Giants, with New York completing 73.9% of their passes and connecting on four touchdown passes. Overall, the Colts allowed 45 points and 389 total yards in a 45-33 loss, with the Giants averaging 13.4 yards per passing attempt.

On third downs, the Colts allowed the Giants to convert on 53.8% of their chances, and despite holding the Giants to 2.7 yards per attempt on the ground, the passing game was very effective against them.