Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Betting Pick & Prediction 12/1/24
The Patriots are the underdog at +128 on the money line as they host the Colts at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Colts are favored on the road with a money line of -151 and a point spread of -2.5. The over/under line is set at 42.5 points. This week 13 AFC matchup is being televised on CBS.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5
This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st.
WHY BET THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
- We have the Colts winning this one by a score of 22 to 19
- Not only do we have the Colts winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -2.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 42.5 points
Will The Colts Pick Up A Win On The Road?
Heading into week 13, the Colts sit at 5-7, putting them 2nd in the AFC South. Our projections give them a 22.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 7.4% chance of winning the division. Indy ranks 25th in our NFL power rankings.
Against the spread, the Colts are 8-4, including a 6-3 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-7, with their games averaging 43 points (the O/U line has averaged 44.8). In week 12, they lost 24-6 to the Lions, dropping their record to 5-7. They were unable to cover the 7-point spread, and the 30 combined points fell short of the 50.5-point line.
Heading into week 13, the Colts are 25th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 20th in the NFL in points per game (20.2) and 22nd in yards per game (316.3). Indianapolis is 23rd in passing attempts per game and 24th in passing yards, averaging 199.7 per contest. On the ground, they rank 21st in rushing attempts and 17th in rushing yards per game (116.7). The Colts are 23rd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36% success rate, but they are 10th in red zone attempts and 16th in red zone conversion percentage.
Anthony Richardson struggled in week 12, completing just 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards in a loss to the Lions. Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 6 catches for 96 yards, and Richardson added 61 rushing yards on 10 carries. Indianapolis scored only 6 points, failing to score in the 2nd half. They converted 3 of 12 3rd-down attempts and went 0 for 2 in the red zone.
In their 24-6 loss to the Lions, the Colts allowed 390 yards and 137 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Despite their struggles, the Colts’ defense managed to sack the quarterback three times and had six tackles for loss. Detroit converted on 60% of their third down attempts, and the Colts allowed the Lions to complete 72.2% of their passes for 253 yards.
The Colts’ defense didn’t give up any passing touchdowns, but they still couldn’t do enough to keep the Lions out of the end zone. Indianapolis will be looking to improve their overall defensive performance in their next game.
Will The Patriots Win At Home Over The Colts?
Heading into week 13, the Patriots rank 30th in our NFL power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. New England is currently on a two-game losing streak, including a 34-15 loss to the Dolphins in week 12. They were unable to cover the 7.5-point spread, and the 49 combined points went over the 45.5-point line. The over has now hit in two straight Patriots games.
New England is 4-7-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of -7.1 points per game. They have been underdogs in all of their games so far. The Patriots are 3-9 overall, with a 1-4 record at home and a 2-5 record on the road. In the AFC East, they are 1-3 and sit in 4th place.
Heading into week 13, the Patriots rank 27th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in points per game (16.4) and last in both passing yards (167.2) and total yards (280.1) per game. On third down, they rank 26th with a conversion rate of 34.1%, but they have been effective in the red zone, ranking 8th with a 40.6% conversion rate.
Drake Maye threw for 222 yards (22/37) and a touchdown in week 12, but he also had an interception and was sacked 4 times. The Patriots’ offense struggled early, failing to score until the 4th quarter. DeMario Douglas led the team with 5 catches for 62 yards, and Antonio Gibson had 31 rushing yards on 6 carries.
The Patriots’ defense struggled to defend the pass in their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins, giving up 308 yards through the air and allowing four passing touchdowns. Despite this, they did a good job against the run, holding the Dolphins to just 65 yards on 24 attempts (2.7 yards per attempt).
New England allowed Miami to convert on 33.3% of their third down attempts and recorded two sacks in the game. However, they also allowed the Dolphins to complete 72.5% of their passes and finish with 373 total yards.