Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick & Prediction 9/8/24
The Texans are favored on the road in their week one matchup against the Colts, with a money line of -140. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, will be broadcast on CBS. The Texans are -2.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 49 points.
HOUSTON TEXANS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts +2.5
This game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th.
WHY BET THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
- We have the Texans winning this one by a score of 23 to 22
- Even though we like the Texans to win, our ATS pick is to take the Colts at +2.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 49 points
Will The Texans Pick Up A Win On The Road?
The Texans’ playoff run ended in the AFC Divisional round with a 34-10 loss to the Ravens, but they had a successful regular season, going 10-7 and finishing 1st in the AFC South. Houston excelled at home with a 7-3 record, but struggled a bit on the road at 4-5. Within their division, the Texans were 4-2, and they performed well against above .500 teams, going 7-5.
Against the spread, the Texans were 10-9, with a 7-4 record as the underdog and 3-5 when favored. Their over/under record was 7-11-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points. This placed them 18th in the league in average combined scoring.
The Texans’ running game struggled last season, ranking 28th in rushing yards and 29th in rushing yards per attempt. However, they were more successful in the passing game, ranking 8th in passing yards per game. Houston averaged 243.6 passing yards per game and 336.3 total yards per game, placing them 15th in the league.
Overall, the Texans’ offense finished the season with an average of 22.7 points per game, putting them 13th in the NFL. At home, they scored 26.6 points per game, the 8th best mark in the league, but on the road, they dropped to 21st, scoring only 18.4 points per game.
The Texans’ defense was one of the better units at taking the ball away last season, ranking 7th in takeaways and 3rd in turnover differential. They forced the most turnovers in the secondary, with 16 interceptions. Houston’s defense finished the season 19th in our power rankings, allowing 21.1 points per game, which was 11th in the NFL. They also excelled in getting to the quarterback, finishing 7th in quarterback hits and 9th in sacks.
Opposing offenses converted on 35.7% of their third down attempts against the Texans, the 5th best rate in the league. Although they gave up a lot of yards (331.5 per game), Houston allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns and held opponents to the 2nd lowest rushing yards per attempt figure in the NFL.
Will The Colts Win At Home Over The Texans?
The Texans are coming off a season in which they were 10-7 overall and advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs before falling to the Ravens (34-10). Despite their playoff success, they were just 4th in the AFC and finished 8-6 in the conference. Houston’s regular-season record of 10-7 was fueled by a strong showing within their division, as they went 4-2 against AFC South rivals.
Houston’s home record was 7-3, while they were 4-5 on the road. Against the spread, the Texans were 10-9, with a 7-4 mark as the underdog and 3-5 when favored. Their games averaged 43.8 points, and their over/under record was 7-11-1.
On the road, the Texans averaged 18.4 points per game, ranking 21st in the league, while at home, they were 8th, scoring 26.6 points per game. Overall, they finished the season with an average of 22.7 points per game, placing them 13th in the NFL. Houston’s offense was 13th in the league in terms of power ranking, and they were 15th in yards per game, averaging 336.3 yards per contest.
Although the Texans struggled to run the ball, finishing 28th in rushing yards and 29th in rushing yards per attempt, they had the 6th best passing yards per attempt in the league. They also had the 2nd highest percentage of first downs coming from passing plays, at 1254.1%.
The Texans’ defense was 11th in points allowed last season, giving up 21.1 points per game. They were a top unit in terms of takeaways, ranking 7th with 24, and excelled in turnover differential, where they were 3rd in the league. Houston also ranked 7th in quarterback hits, 2nd in tackles for loss, and 9th in sacks.
Although they gave up 331.5 yards per game, placing them 15th in the NFL, the Texans were the best unit in the league at not allowing rushing touchdowns. Opponents did convert on 35.7% of their third down attempts against Houston.