Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 9/18/24

Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Astros and Padres is set for 6:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, CA. The Astros are currently favored on the money line, and their record of 82-69 has them in 1st place in the AL West. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West with an overall record of 86-66.

The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and Framber Valdez will start for the Astros, while the Padres have Dylan Cease on the mound. Cease will be looking to help the Padres close the gap on the Giants, who lead the NL West.

HOUSTON ASTROS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline -112

This game will be played at PETCO Park at 6:40 ET on Wednesday, September 18th.

HOW TO BET THE ASTROS VS PADRES:

• We have the Astros winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Padres to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Houston picked up a 4-3 road win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a two-run 4th inning and scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 8th. As for the Padres, they scored their only run in the 6th and tied the game with a run in the 7th.

Josh Hader got the win for the Astros out of the bullpen, while Hector Neris got the save. Adrian Morejon took the loss for San Diego out of the bullpen.

Hunter Brown started for the Astros, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. He finished the game with just three strikeouts but induced 11 ground balls. Michael King put together a good outing for the Padres, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work.

Astros Records & Stats

Houston leads the AL West by five games over the Mariners as they take on the Padres today. The Astros are 82-69 overall and have gone 25-20 against other teams in the AL West. They have won four straight games as the favorite, and they are 63-49 when favored this year.

At home, the Astros are 42-32 this year, and they are just above .500 at 40-37 on the road. So far, they have an overall series record of 26-20-2. Houston is 6-4 across their last ten games and are looking to take the series lead vs. the Padres today.

When the Astros are on the road, they are a solid bet against the run line, as they are 43-34 this season. Their average run differential away from home is +0.2, and they have covered the run line in four straight games as the favorite.

The Houston Astros have played in 146 games this season with an over/under line higher than 7 runs, which accounts for 96.7% of their games. Their combined run average is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 61-85. When the line is set at 7 runs, their over/under record is 1-4, and their average over/under line for the season is set at 9 runs. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Framber Valdez is looking to bounce back from his last start, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Athletics on September 12th, he gave up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work. Valdez has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 14-6. His ERA for the season is 2.91, along with a WHIP of 1.09. Valdez has one complete game this year and 16 quality starts. Looking at his overall numbers, he has an ERA of 3.98 on the road compared to 2.85 at home.

Yordan Alvarez comes into the game as the Astros’ top hitter this season, with a batting average of .307, and he also leads the team with 85 RBIs and is 8th in the league with 34 homers. However, he has gone just 4/23 in his last six games, with two home runs. Jose Altuve is 3rd on the team with a batting average of .301 and has 19 homers this season.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are 3rd in the league in batting average. They have been swinging the bats well of late, as Jason Heyward has gone 6/16 in his last five games, and Yainer Diaz is hitting .296 in his last six games. Overall, the Astros are 10th in the league in home runs and have the 8th best slugging percentage in the MLB.

Padres Records & Stats

San Diego is 86-66 overall and 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres are 24-22 against other teams in their division. They are 41-36 at home this season and have been really good on the road, going 45-30.

So far, the Padres have been the favorite in most of their games, going 56-42 in those matchups. As for their record as the underdog, they are 30-24 this year. San Diego’s overall series record is 29-15-6, and they are 1-1 in their current series vs. the Astros.

San Diego is a team that has been a better bet on the run line on the road than at home, as the Padres are 47-28 vs. the run line away from Petco Park compared to just 30-47 at home. They have an average run margin of +1.2 on the road, compared to -.1 at home. The Padres have been a better bet vs. the run line as an underdog than as a favorite, going 37-17 vs. the run line as the underdog.

San Diego Padres games have been high-scoring this season, with a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. The over/under record for Padres games this season is 80-69, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 7 runs, the over has hit 11 times, while the under has hit 3 times with 2 pushes. The over has hit in 89.5% of Padres games this season, and the under is currently on a 3-game streak.

Dylan Cease will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start vs. the Giants, Cease went six innings, giving up just four hits and two walks. Cease finished with 10 strikeouts in the outing. Looking at his overall numbers, Cease has made 31 starts and has a record of 13-11. His ERA for the season is 3.58, along with a WHIP of 1.09. Cease has one complete game shutout this year and 15 quality starts. Per nine innings, Cease is averaging 10.99 strikeouts. For the year, Cease has allowed 18 homers.

As a team, the Padres are batting a league-best .265 and are also the top home run hitting team in the league. They are also one of the league’s best offenses in terms of run production, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. San Diego has been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game.

Over his last seven games, Luis Arraez has gone 13/32, and he is batting .320 for the season. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are also having strong seasons, with Machado leading the team in homers (27) and RBIs (101), while Merrill is 2nd on the team with 86 RBIs and has gone deep 24 times this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 11/29 with four homers in his last seven games.