Fresno State Bulldogs vs Michigan Wolverines Betting Pick & Prediction 8/31/24
At 7:30 ET, this non-conference matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and Fresno State Bulldogs will be played at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are the heavy favorite with a -21.5 point spread. The over/under line is currently at 46.5 points. This is the first game of the season for both teams, and you can catch the action on NBC.
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS VS MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +21.5
This game will be played at Michigan Stadium at 7:30 ET on Saturday, August 31st.
WHY BET THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS:
- We have the Michigan Wolverines winning this one by a score of 32 to 12
- Even though we like the Michigan Wolverines to win, our ATS pick is to take the Fresno State Bulldogs at +21.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 46.5 points
Will The Fresno State Bulldogs Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Last season, Fresno State was 7-3 when favored and 2-1 as the underdog, finishing with a 9-4 overall record. The Bulldogs were strong at home, going 6-1, but just 3-3 on the road. Heading into this season, they are ranked 74th in our power rankings, with an 81.1% chance of being bowl-eligible and an 18.1% chance of winning the Mountain West.
Currently, the futures odds have the Bulldogs at +480 to win the Mountain West, giving them a 17% chance, which is the second-best in the conference. Their implied odds to make it to the Mountain West title game are 43%, with the futures line at +130 for a Conference title game appearance.
Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 967 yards and nine touchdowns last season, returns to the Fresno State backfield. The Bulldogs’ passing attack was a key part of their offense last season, averaging 281.3 passing yards per game, which ranked 21st in the country. Mikey Keene, who threw for 2,976 yards and 24 touchdowns, is also back for another season. Overall, Fresno State averaged 30.5 points per game last year, thanks in part to their 36th-ranked scoring offense and a 47.6% third-down conversion rate (12th in the country).
On the ground, Fresno State averaged 107.1 rushing yards per game, which was 111th nationally. In the passing game, Jalen Moss, who had 706 receiving yards last season, is the top returning receiver. The Bulldogs have also added Chedon James from Idaho State to bolster their receiving corps.
Last season, the Fresno State Bulldogs’ defense was better against the pass, ranking 56th in passing yards allowed. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 167.5 rushing yards per game, which ranked 121st in the nation. Overall, Fresno State allowed 23.5 points per game, placing them 36th in the country. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 55.2% of their passes against the Bulldogs, which was the 23rd lowest figure in college football last season.
Are The Michigan Wolverines Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Michigan enters the season with the 12th best power ranking after going 15-0 last season. The Wolverines were perfect at home (9-0) and on the road (6-0) and are currently given a 92.4% chance of being bowl-eligible this season. Their odds of winning the Big Ten are set at +750, which is a 12% chance based on the current betting odds, placing them 4th among Big Ten teams.
There is a 28.5% chance, according to our projections, that Michigan will make the college football playoff this season and a 7.3% chance of winning the Big Ten. The Wolverines also have a 4% chance of making it to the National Championship game.
The Wolverines were 7th in the country in scoring last season, averaging 35.9 points per game. They were also 2nd in completion percentage (72.2%) and 10th in passing yards per attempt (8.9). Michigan’s offense was balanced, averaging 170.4 rushing yards (19th) and 213.7 passing yards per game. Last season, they threw just five interceptions, which was the 5th best mark in the country.
Donovan Edwards, who rushed for 497 yards and five touchdowns last season, is the Wolverines’ top returning running back. He also had 249 receiving yards. Michigan also added C.J. Charleston from Youngstown State to their receiving corps, which still includes Semaj Morgan. Edwards has the 6th best odds to win the Doak Walker Trophy this season (+2000).
Michigan’s defense was one of the best in the country last season, allowing just 10.4 points per game, which was the 3rd best figure in college football. Opposing quarterbacks had a tough time vs. the Wolverines, posting a passer rating of just 60.4, the 4th lowest in the nation. Michigan was also tough vs. the run, giving up only 91.3 rush yards per game, the 11th best figure in college football.