Fresno State Bulldogs vs Air Force Falcons Betting Pick & Prediction 11/9/24
At 9:45 ET, this Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Air Force Falcons matchup is set to kick off at Falcon Stadium in the USAF Academy. FS1 is handling the TV broadcast for this week 11 college football game. The Bulldogs are favored by -10.5 points, and the over/under line is currently at 41.5 points. The money line odds are -424 for Fresno State and +325 for Air Force. Fresno State has a 5-4 record, while Air Force is just 1-7 on the season.
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS VS AIR FORCE FALCONS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs -10.5
This game will be played at Falcon Stadium at 9:45 ET on Saturday, November 9th.
WHY BET THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS:
- We have the Fresno State Bulldogs winning this one by a score of 27 to 12
- Not only do we have the Fresno State Bulldogs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -10.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 41.5 points
Will The Fresno State Bulldogs Win As Road Favorites?
Fresno State enters Week 11 with a 5-4 record, ranked 81st in our power rankings. They have a 95.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.7% chance of winning the Mountain West. The Bulldogs are 2-2 on the road and 2-2 at home this season.
Fresno State has been favored in five of their nine games, going 4-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +3.7 points per game, and they hold a 4-3-1 record against the spread.
The over/under line for this week is 41.5 points. Fresno State’s games have averaged an over/under line of 51.9 points, with their over/under record at 2-6 this season.
Fresno State’s offense is averaging 27.8 points per game heading into week 11, placing them 54th nationally. In our offensive power rankings, they are 106th. Their rushing attack has been underwhelming, averaging 106.6 yards per game, ranking 111th in the country. Elijah Gilliam leads the team with 442 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 3 yards per carry.
Quarterback Mikey Keene has thrown for 2,198 yards, completing 68.8% of his passes. Fresno State ranks 14th in completions and 26th in passing attempts. Keene has 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, with a passer rating of 89. Mac Dalena leads the receivers with 730 yards and five touchdowns on 40 catches.
Fresno State’s defense allowed 21 points in their recent 21-20 loss to Hawaii, giving up 346 total yards, including 244 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air. They also forced one interception and held Hawaii to 102 rushing yards on 36 attempts.
On the season, Fresno State ranks 55th nationally, allowing 24.1 points per game. Opponents have averaged 220.7 passing yards per game and 128.2 rushing yards. Fresno State’s defense has faced the 110th most pass attempts in the country, but they’ve held quarterbacks to a 56.1% completion rate, which ranks 26th nationally.
Are The Air Force Falcons Going Win In At Upset At Falcon Stadium
Air Force enters Week 11 against Fresno State with a 1-7 record, ranking 122nd in our power rankings. They have no chance of reaching bowl eligibility this season. At home, the Falcons are 0-3, and they’ve been favored in two of their eight games.
The Falcons’ average scoring margin this season is -12.8 points per game, and they are 1-6 against the spread. At home, they are 0-3 ATS and have gone 0-2 as the favorite.
Air Force’s over/under record is 3-4, with their games averaging 40.2 points. The average over/under line is 42 points, and this week’s line is slightly lower at 41.5 points.
Air Force’s offense has struggled this season, ranking 131st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11. They are 105th in scoring, with just 13.8 points per game, and their third-down conversion rate is also 105th, at 33.6%. Their passing game has been particularly weak, with a passer rating of 42, the worst in the country, and they are 125th in passing yards per game, averaging 99.5.
John Busha, Air Force’s quarterback, has thrown for 415 yards with a passer rating of 32. He has one touchdown and five interceptions, completing 36.7% of his passes. The Falcons are second in rushing attempts per game, averaging 186.2 yards on the ground. Dylan Carson leads the team with 153 rushing yards, averaging 3 yards per carry. Cade Harris has 221 receiving yards on 19 catches.
Air Force’s defense has allowed 26.5 points per game this season, ranking 53rd nationally. They’ve given up 198.9 rushing yards per game, placing them 150th in the country, while allowing 170.4 passing yards per game, the 22nd-lowest mark in college football.
In their recent game against Army, Air Force’s defense allowed 20 points, giving up 209 rushing yards on 42 attempts but just 48 passing yards on nine attempts.