French Open Finals Betting Preview
The 2024 French Open is coming to a close this weekend and what a tournament it has been with several clashes between top-ranked players and a couple of major upsets in the women’s draw. The men’s semi-finals take place on Friday. Then Iga Swiatek, a three-time French Open winner who has won 18 consecutive matches, takes on Italian underdog Jasmine Paolini, who is into her first grand slam final.
Novak Djokovic withdrew from the tournament after reaching the quarter-finals, but the men’s final will be one worth watching, featuring either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud or Alexander Zverev.
Let’s take a look at the women’s final and speculate what the men’s final might look like.
WTA French Open Final
Jasmine Paolini (+900) vs. Iga Swiatek (-1400)
It’s hard to see anyone beating Swiatek at Roland Garros, which makes straight-up betting on the women’s French Open final a little tricky. At -1400, there’s very little incentive to bet on the world No. 1. And yet, there’s still some risk involved even though she has won 18 consecutive matches, has only lost 8 games combined in her last three matches, and is 2-0 in her career against Paolini.
However, Swiatek hasn’t played Paolini since 2022 and the 28-year-old Italian is on some kind of run at Roland Garros. Her two most recent victories came against Elena Rybakina, the world No. 4, and Mirra Andreeva, a 17-year-old Russian sensation who earned a spot in the semi-finals with a win against Aryna Sabalenka. Paolini is 22-10 this season, including 10-3 on clay courts, whereas Swiatek is 4-4, including 20-1 on clay.
The games total is a better betting market for the women’s French Open final. BetOnline has the number at 17.5, with over and under odds of +100 and -120. The over is a good bet here since it could still hit even with a Swiatek sweep. With so much on the line, Paolini should at least make things interesting in one set. A 6-4, 6-2 victory for Swiatek still covers the total.
ATP French Open Final
There’s a lot to be determined here. Alcaraz and Zverev are the betting favorites at BetOnline, however Sinner has lost only twice this season and Ruud is a two-time runner-up at Roland Garros. Any combination of players in the final is plausible. I like Alcaraz to beat Sinner in the first of two semi-finals, however. Alcaraz has been in fine form for the last two weeks, is arguably the best clay court player on the ATP Tour, and is one of two players to beat Sinner this season.
In the second semi-final, Ruud is a good pick considering he has plus money at +110 tennis odds. He had the good fortune of not having to play in the quarter-finals as his opponent – Djokovic – withdrew, so he should be fresh. He has played four hours fewer than Zverev at Roland Garros and is 1-0 against the German on clay, beating him in straight sets in last year’s French Open semi-finals.
Assuming an Alcaraz-Ruud final, I still like Alcaraz to prevail and win his third grand slam. A victory at Roland Garros would leave only the Australian Open for the career grand slam.