Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 9/5/24
The forecast for Thursday’s Tigers-Padres interleague matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. The game is being held at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Tigers have lost two straight and are 70-70 overall, putting them 4th in the AL Central. The Padres are 2nd in the NL West with an overall record of 80-61.
Casey Mize will start for the Tigers, while the Padres are sending Martin Perez to the mound. San Diego is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -155 compared to the Tigers at +130. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and this game can be seen on BSDET.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS DETROIT TIGERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -155
This game will be played at PETCO Park at 8:40 ET on Thursday, September 5th.
HOW TO BET THE TIGERS VS PADRES:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Tigers to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
San Diego picked up a 6-5 win over the Tigers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a late rally, scoring one run in the 5th and adding two more in the 10th. As for the Tigers, they scored two runs in the 4th and added three more in the 5th.
Yu Darvish got the start for the Padres, going just 2 2/3 innings while giving up three runs and striking out four. Jeremiah Estrada got the win out of the bullpen. Keider Montero only went 4 1/3 innings for the Tigers, giving up five runs on seven hits.
Jackson Merrill was the difference for the Padres, as he homered, scored three times, and drove in three runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. also had a two-hit game for San Diego. Matt Vierling hit the game’s only other home run for the Tigers, going 2/5 with three RBIs.
Tigers Records & Stats
Detroit is at an even .500 this season, with a record of 70-70, and they are 10 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. The Tigers have dropped two straight games, and they trail the Padres 2-0 in their series. So far, they are 24-22 against other teams in the AL Central.
At home, the Tigers are 35-34 this year, and they are one game above .500 at 35-36 on the road. As the underdog, the Tigers are 38-48 this season, and they are 32-22 when favored. Detroit has won three straight series, and their overall series record is 20-19-5 this year.
The Tigers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, with a 73-67 record. They have been particularly profitable on the road, going 44-27 against the run line. Their average run margin for the season is just +0.1, but they have been much better than that in their wins, with an average run margin of +3.6.
The Detroit Tigers are on the road today against the San Diego Padres, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Tigers have played 136 games this season, and their combined run average is 8.3 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 70-66, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs per game. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 13-14. So far this season, 24 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 17.1% of their games. The majority of their games, 89, have had over/under lines set under 8.5 runs, which accounts for 63.6% of their games.
Detroit is sending Casey Mize to the mound today vs. the Padres, and he comes in with a record of 2-6 and ERA of 4.36. Mize has made 17 starts this year and has a WHIP of 1.43. Looking back at his last outing, Mize finished with a no-decision vs. the Red Sox, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts and didn’t give up a run in either outing. Mize’s ERA on the road is 7.46, compared to 4.01 at home.
Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is a team that has struggled to hit for average, as they are batting just .233, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and walks. Detroit’s team slugging percentage of .387 is also 18th in the league.
Riley Greene is the Tigers’ leader in both home runs (20) and RBIs (58) this season, and he comes into the game with a batting average of .256. However, Greene has struggled of late, hitting just .172 over his last eight games. Matt Vierling has also gone deep 16 times this season, and he has been swinging a good bat of late, going 9/29 in his last eight games.
Padres Records & Stats
With an overall record of 80-61, the Padres are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego has won three straight games, and they are 2-0 in their series vs. the Tigers. The Padres have an even 20-20 record in divisional games this year.
At home, the Padres are 39-32 this year and 41-29 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 51-37 this year and 29-24 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 27-14-5, and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
San Diego is a team that has been a good bet on the run line this season, as they have covered the run line in 72 of their 141 games. They have been especially good on the road, going 44-26 on the run line, compared to just 28-43 at home. The Padres have been a solid bet as an underdog, going 36-17 on the run line in those games. Their average run differential in wins is +3.6, while it is -3.6 in losses.
Today’s over/under line for the San Diego Padres’ game against the Detroit Tigers is 8.5 runs. The Padres have gone over the total in 76 of their 139 games this season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.0 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, the Padres have gone over the total in 18 of 33 games, which is a 54.5% over rate. Overall, 25 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 17.7% of their games this season.
Left-hander Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Tigers at home. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 4-5 with a 4.71 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Perez has a WHIP of 1.53 and has issued 3.3 walks per nine innings compared to 7.14 strikeouts. Perez’s last outing came on August 30th, where he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Before that, he had three straight no-decisions.
San Diego comes into today’s game as the top hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .265. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.
Jackson Merrill has been swinging a hot bat for the Padres, going 9/24 (.375) with three homers over his last six games. For the season, he is 2nd on the team with 22 homers. Manny Machado is right ahead of him with 23 homers and comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Machado also leads the Padres with 86 RBIs.