Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Pick & Prediction 5/7/25
At 9:30 ET, the Thunder (-553) will host the Nuggets (+409) in a Northwest Division matchup. Oklahoma City is favored by 11 points and the over/under line is 229.5. TNT will televise the game from Paycom Center.
The Thunder (68-14) are 1st in the Western Conference and the Nuggets (50-32) are 4th. Denver has won two straight games.
DENVER NUGGETS VS OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER BETTING PICK
The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -11
This game will be played at Paycom Center at 9:30 ET on Wednesday, May 7th.
WHY BET THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 154-140 in favor of the Thunder.
- Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with 32 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists.
- From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.9% and knocking down 18 threes.
Will the Nuggets Win in Oklahoma City?
Denver improved to 50-32 on the season with a 121-119 win over the Thunder on Monday. The Nuggets, who were +2 point underdogs going into the game, not only won but also covered the spread. The total points for the game were 240, exceeding the O/U line of 229.5 by 10.5 points.
After falling behind 33-24 in the 2nd quarter, Denver rallied by outscoring the Thunder 35-30 in the 3rd and 36-29 in the 4th. The Thunder had a 10-0 run early on, but the Nuggets came back strong in the 2nd half, especially in the 4th quarter, where they started down 90-85.
Nikola Jokić’s 42-point, 22-rebound performance powered the Nuggets to a win over the Thunder, with 18 of his points coming in the 4th quarter. Aaron Gordon added 22 points, and Jamal Murray contributed 21, scoring 12 in the opening quarter.
Denver’s shooting was subpar, hitting just 44.2% from the field and 31.2% from three, making 10 threes overall. Gordon connected on 3 threes at a 50% rate, while Jokić hit 2, shooting 33.3% from deep.
Even while giving up 119 points, the Nuggets managed to secure a win over the Thunder. Denver allowed 27 points in the 1st quarter, 33 in the 2nd, 30 in the 3rd, and 29 in the 4th. The Thunder shot 42% from the field.
From beyond the arc, the Thunder hit 15 threes at a 34% rate. Denver sent them to the line 28 times, where they made 20 free throws. The Nuggets collected 42 defensive rebounds, gave up 13 offensive boards, and recorded 6 steals and 5 blocks.
Can the Thunder Deliver Being Favored at Home?
The Thunder fell to 68-14 this season after a 121-119 home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Despite being favored by 10.5 points, Oklahoma City not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 240 points went over the pre-game total of 229.5.
Oklahoma City appeared to be in control after a 10-0 run early in the game and led 90-85 going into the 4th quarter. However, Denver outscored them 36-29 in the final period to complete the comeback.
In their 121-119 loss to the Nuggets, the Thunder shot 42% from the field, with a three-point percentage of 34.9%, hitting 15 threes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 33 points, adding 8 assists and 10 rebounds, while Alex Caruso contributed 20 points, knocking down 5 threes at 55.6% efficiency.
Gilgeous-Alexander scored 14 points in the 1st quarter and added 13 more in the 4th. Caruso also had 8 points in the 3rd quarter, and Jalen Williams added 6 of his 16 points in the final period.
The Thunder put together strong defensive efforts in the 1st and 2nd quarters, allowing just 26 and 24 points, respectively. However, they struggled in the 3rd and 4th quarters, giving up 35 and 36 points, leading to a 121-119 loss to the Nuggets. Despite the loss, they held Denver to 44% shooting from the field.
Oklahoma City did a good job defending the three-point line, limiting the Nuggets to 10 made threes on 31% shooting. The Thunder also recorded 12 steals and 11 blocks. However, they sent Denver to the free-throw line 33 times, where the Nuggets converted 27 attempts. The Thunder also allowed 21 offensive rebounds.