Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Pick & Prediction 5/10/24

Heading into game three of this first-round series, the Timberwolves are up 2-0 over the Nuggets. Friday’s matchup is set for 9:30 PM ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis and is being televised on ESPN. The over/under line is sitting at 204.5 points, and the Timberwolves are favored by 4.5 points. On the money line, the Nuggets are +158 compared to the Timberwolves at -192.

DENVER NUGGETS VS MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Nuggets +4.5

This game will be played at Target Center at 9:30 ET on Friday, May 10th.

WHY BET THE DENVER NUGGETS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 112-111 in favor of the Nuggets.
• Our projections have Nikola Jokic finishing with Nikola Jokic points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists.
• From the field, we have the Nuggets finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.0% and knocking down 12 threes.

Minnesota’s 106-80 win over the Nuggets was a big upset, as they were 7-point underdogs going into the game. The Timberwolves had a big second quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 33-15, and they were up 82-60 heading into the 4th. The game also fell 23.5 points short of the over/under line of 209.5 points.

The Timberwolves held the Nuggets to just 34.9% shooting from the field and only 9 made threes. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns each had 27 points for the Timberwolves, and they shot 66.7% and 64.7% from the field, respectively. Edwards also had seven assists. Aaron Gordon led the Nuggets with 20 points.

Can the Nuggets Offense Score Enough in Minneapolis?

This season, the Nuggets have gone 35-52-2 on the over/under, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line of 204.5 is lower than all of their previous games.

Denver’s ATS record is 40-47 for the season, with a 18-24 record on the road and a 22-23 record at home. They have failed to cover the spread in their last four road games and are 6-5 ATS as underdogs.

As the underdog, the Nuggets have gone 5-6 straight-up and 6-5 ATS. They have been the underdog in 11 of their 82 games this season.

Denver is currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In the West, they are 33-19 against other conference teams and 24-6 in non-conference games.

The Nuggets are looking to avenge a 106-80 loss to the Timberwolves in their last game. In that game, Denver was favored by 7 points and the O/U line was 209.5.

Detroit will need to slow down Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 26 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 9.8 assists over his last five games. For the season, he has hit 35.9% of his threes. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 20.4 points per game in his last five games on a field goal percentage of 49.3%.

Denver’s offense is averaging 114.9 points per game this season, which is 15th in the NBA. They have been better at home, averaging 116.5 points per game compared to 111.1 on the road. The team’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 5th best mark in the league.

When it comes to defense, the Nuggets have been one of the best units in the league this season, ranking 6th in points allowed per game at 109.3. This is a trend that has held up on the road, as they are also 6th in points allowed per game away from home at 110.5.

Opposing offenses have had a tough time making threes against the Nuggets this season, as they are 2nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.2%. This has also translated to opponents making fewer threes than their season average in 75.6% of games against Denver.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better at defending the three-point line, ranking 6th in three-point shooting percentage allowed during that stretch at 31.6%.

Is a Home Win Possible for the Timberwolves?

In Minnesota’s last game against the Nuggets, they won by a score of 106-80. The Timberwolves were 7-point underdogs going into the game.

Minnesota has won six straight games and is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 37-15 and 12-4 against teams in the Northwest Division.

The Timberwolves are favored by 4.5 points today and have a 49-16 record as the favorite this season. In their last two games, they have covered the spread and are 20-23 ATS at home and 46-41 overall.

This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 45-43, and their games have averaged 219 points per game. The average O/U line in their games is 220.4 points.

Currently, the Timberwolves have won four straight games against the spread as the favorite and have a 31-33 ATS record as the favorite this season. As the favorite, they have gone 15-8 vs. the spread on the road and 20-23 at home.

The O/U trend for Minnesota is currently at two straight games going under. Today’s line of 204.5 is lower than all of their previous games this season.

Minnesota is the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense this season, at 113 points per game. Their production is a little lower than that at home, where they are 22nd in the league, at 112 points per contest. The Timberwolves are also a below-average team in terms of pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 32.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 53.8% of his shots from the field. Across his last five games, Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 54.2% of his threes and 2.6 threes per game. This has led to an average of 21 points and 9.4 rebounds in that stretch.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA. On the season, they are giving up just 106.0 points per game, which is tops in the league. At home, they are allowing just 103.3 points per game, which is also the best mark in the NBA.

Over their last five games, Minnesota has given up just 99.4 points per game, which is the 4th best mark in the NBA over that stretch. During that time, opposing teams have shot 44.8% from the field, which is 7th best in the league.

One area where the Timberwolves have struggled a bit recently is at the free-throw line. Over their last five games, they have given up an average of 20.4 made free-throws per game, which is 28th in the NBA.