Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Betting Pick & Prediction 10/17/24

AMZN will broadcast the non-conference matchup between the Broncos and Saints on Thursday, October 17th at 8:15 ET. The game is being played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints are the home team and the Broncos are the road team. The Broncos are favored with a money line of -124 and a point spread of -1.5. The over/under line is 37 points.

DENVER BRONCOS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Broncos -1.5

This game will be played at Caesars Superdome at 8:15 ET on Thursday, October 17th.

WHY BET THE DENVER BRONCOS:

• We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 19 to 17
• Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 37 points

Will The Broncos Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Heading into week 7, the Broncos sit at 3-3, placing them 3rd in the AFC West. After two straight wins, Denver couldn’t keep the streak going in week 6, falling 23-16 at home to the Chargers. This dropped their home record to 1-2, but they’ve been better on the road, going 2-1. In our power rankings, the Broncos are 25th, and we give them a 25.7% chance of making the playoffs.

Denver has a +2.7 scoring margin and is 4-2 against the spread. They’ve gone 3-2 as underdogs and 1-0 as favorites. Their O/U record is 3-3, with the over hitting in two straight games.

Heading into week 7, the Broncos rank 30th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game (18.7) and 29th in yards per game (278.2). Denver ranks 27th in passing yards per game (170.8) despite being 12th in pass attempts, with Bo Nix throwing for 216 yards (19/33) and 2 touchdowns in week 6. On the ground, the Broncos average 107.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd in the league.

Denver has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 25% of their attempts, which ranks 28th in the NFL. However, they have been better in the red zone, converting 38.9% of their chances, which ranks 12th. In week 6, they scored all 16 of their points in the 4th quarter against the Chargers, going 2/2 in the red zone after being shut out for the first three quarters.

In their 23-16 loss to the Chargers, the Broncos allowed 350 yards and 128 rushing yards on 38 attempts. They did, however, have a good day rushing the passer, with three sacks and a positive differential in both quarterback hits and tackles for loss. The Broncos’ defense held the Chargers to 61.1% on third down and allowed just 222 passing yards on 21 completions.

Denver’s defense gave up one passing touchdown and allowed the Chargers to convert 61.8% of their third downs. Despite the loss, the Broncos’ pass rush was effective, and they limited the Chargers to 3.4 yards per attempt on the ground.

Will The Saints Win At Home Over The Broncos?

After starting the season with two straight wins, the Saints have now dropped four in a row, including a 51-27 home loss to the Buccaneers in week 6. This puts New Orleans at 2-4, with a 1-2 record in the NFC South. They currently rank 3rd in the division and 13th in the NFC. Our power rankings have them 29th heading into week 7, and we give them a 14.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 5.4% chance of winning the division.

New Orleans is 3-3 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +3.3 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-2, with their games averaging 52.3 points. The O/U line for their week 6 matchup with the Bucs was 42.5, and the teams combined for 78 points.

We have the Saints ranked 14th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 27.8, and they rank 3rd in 3rd-down conversion percentage, with a 47.1% success rate. New Orleans has relied heavily on the run game, with 29 rushing attempts per game, ranking 10th in the league, and they are 13th in rushing yards per game, averaging 119.5. In the passing game, they rank 22nd in attempts and 21st in yards per game, with 200.3.

Spencer Rattler took over at QB in week 6, throwing for 243 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions on 22/40 passing. Alvin Kamara had 13 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown, while Foster Moreau led the team in receiving with 54 yards on 2 catches. The Saints struggled on 3rd down, converting just 4 of 13 attempts.

The Saints’ defense gave up 594 yards in their 51-27 loss to the Buccaneers, including a massive 277 yards on the ground. Despite allowing 317 yards through the air, they did manage to intercept three passes and held Tampa Bay to a 66.7% completion rate. However, the Buccaneers still managed to score four passing touchdowns and convert 60% of their third down attempts.

New Orleans’ defense struggled to generate pressure, finishing with only one sack and losing the tackles for loss battle. The Buccaneers averaged 8.8 yards per passing attempt and 7.9 yards per rushing attempt in a tough outing for the Saints’ defense.