Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers Betting Pick & Prediction 5/1/24

Wednesday night’s game five between the Mavericks and Clippers is tied at two games apiece heading into this Western Conference first-round matchup. Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. TNT is carrying the game on TV. The Mavericks are favored by 3 points, and the over/under line is 207.5 points. The money line odds are -151 for the Mavericks and +126 for the Clippers.

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +3

This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena at 10:00 ET on Wednesday, May 1st.

WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 119-117 in favor of the Clippers.
• Our projections have Paul George finishing with Paul George points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists.
• From the field, we have the Clippers finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.2% and knocking down 12 threes.

James Harden and Paul George each scored 33 points in the most recent game of this Clippers-Mavericks series, and it was the Clippers who came out on top by a score of 116-111. Los Angeles jumped out to a 39-16 lead in the first quarter and held on for the win. The Clippers were 7-point underdogs going into the game and easily covered the spread.

Going into the game, the over/under line was at 209.5 points, and the teams combined for 227. The Clippers shot 62.1% from three-point range and hit 18 threes as a team. Kyrie Irving had 40 points for the Mavericks and knocked down six threes of his own.

Can the Dallas Offense Score Enough on the Road?

Dallas is favored by 3 points today against the Clippers. This season, the Mavericks have been favored in 66% of their games and have a 39-15 record as the favorite. When favored, they have gone 34-20 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +6.6 points per game.

Looking at their O/U record for the season, the Mavericks are 38-48. In their games this season, the average over/under line has been 233.9, with an average combined scoring total of 232.1 points.

In their last game against the Clippers, the Mavericks lost by a score of 116-111. The O/U line for that game was 209.5, and Dallas was favored by 7 points going into the game.

For the season, the Mavericks have a road record of 26-17, and they are 50-36 against the spread. In the Western Conference, they are currently in 5th place and have a record of 50-32.

On average, the Mavericks are the 8th best scoring team in the league this season, at 117.9 points per game. But they have been below average in terms of scoring efficiency, as they have been below the league average in 47.6% of their games. Dallas has achieved their scoring production this season by getting up a lot of threes, as they are 3rd in both three-point attempts and makes. For the season, they are hitting 36% of their looks from beyond the arc.

Luka Doncic is averaging 29 points per game over his last four games but has done so on just 38.6% shooting. In these games, he also averaged 9.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists. For the season, he is averaging 4.1 made threes per game on a shooting percentage of 38.2% from downtown. Kyrie Irving has averaged 28.8 points per game in his last four games while shooting 51.3% from the field and 48.5% from three.

So far this season, the Mavericks’ defense has been middle of the pack, ranking 18th in the league in points allowed per game at 115.0. Over their last five games, they’ve been slightly better, coming in at 15th in that span.

One area where Dallas has struggled a bit is defending the three-point line. On the year, they’re 20th in three-point percentage allowed at 37.0%. Over their last five games, they’ve been even worse, ranking 30th in the NBA in that category.

On the interior, the Mavericks have been solid, ranking 13th in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 54.2%. Overall, they’re 15th in blocked shots per game at 5.0.

Will the Clippers Make it Happen at Home?

In their 82 games this season, the Clippers have an average scoring differential of +3.0 points per game at home. On the road, their scoring differential is +3.3 PPG. Today, the O/U line is set at 207.5, and the average O/U line in their games this season is 227.1.

As the underdog, the Clippers are 7-15 this season, and they have gone 8-14 ATS as the underdog. In games as the favorite, they are 46-18 straight-up and 32-32 ATS. Currently, they have lost three straight games against the spread as the favorite.

For the season, the Clippers are 39-46-1 on the over/under. In their last game against the Mavericks, the teams combined for 227 points, surpassing the O/U line of 209.5. In total, 86 of the Clippers’ games have had higher O/U lines than today’s.

The Clippers are 51-31 overall this season, which is good for 4th place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 30-22 and 9-7 against other teams in the Pacific Division. In their last game, the Clippers won 116-111 as 7-point underdogs.

For the season, the Clippers are the 12th ranked scoring team, averaging 115.6 points per game. They have been slightly worse at home, with an average of 114.7 points per contest. Los Angeles is near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 96.6 possessions per game.

James Harden has averaged 26 points per game in his last four games while hitting 54.1% of his shots from the field. In these games, he hit 4.2 threes per game. Paul George is averaging 21 points per game in his last four games while hitting 3.5 threes per contest. Overall, George is averaging 22.6 points per game for the season.

When playing at home this season, the Clippers have been solid on the defensive end, allowing 111.6 points per game (14th). Overall, they have given up 111.8 points per game (11th).

Over their last five games, the Clippers have been even better, giving up just 104.2 points per game (7th). During this stretch, they have done a good job of defending the three-point line, holding opponents to just 32.1% from deep.

On the season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 61.0% of games vs. the Clippers. In terms of three-point shooting, opposing teams have made fewer threes than their season average vs. Los Angeles 61.0% of the time.