Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Pick & Prediction 11/3/24

The Falcons are favored at -145 on the money line as they host the Cowboys at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 3rd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This week nine NFC matchup is being televised on FOX, with the Falcons favored by -2.5 points. The over/under line is sitting at 52 points.

DALLAS COWBOYS VS ATLANTA FALCONS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +2.5

This game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 3rd.

WHY BET THE DALLAS COWBOYS:

  • We have the Cowboys winning this one by a score of 30 to 29
  • Not only do we have the Cowboys winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 52 points

Will The Cowboys Pick Up A Win On The Road?

After a week 5 win over the Steelers, the Cowboys have now dropped two straight, including a 47-9 blowout loss to the Lions in week 6 and a 30-24 road loss to the 49ers in week 8. Dallas was unable to cover the spread in either game, including a 5.5-point underdog line against San Francisco. The O/U line for that matchup was 47.5 points, with the teams combining for 54.

Dallas now sits 23rd in our NFL power rankings and has a 12.2% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3-4 on the season, including a 1-0 record in division games. The Cowboys are 0-3 at home but 3-1 on the road. Against the spread, they are 2-5, with both of their ATS wins coming as underdogs.

Heading into week 9, the Cowboys rank 22nd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 21.4 points per game. They lead the NFL in passing attempts per game (39.4), resulting in 256 passing yards per game, which ranks 3rd in the league. On the ground, Dallas ranks last in rushing yards per game, with just 74.1, on 21.7 attempts per game (25th). They have been effective in the red zone, converting 73.7% of their opportunities, ranking 4th in the NFL.

In week 8, Dak Prescott threw for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 25 of 38 passes, but also had 2 interceptions. CeeDee Lamb had a big game, with 13 receptions for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott led the team in rushing with 34 yards on 10 carries. Dallas scored 14 points in the 4th quarter against the 49ers, but it wasn’t enough in their 30-24 loss.

In their 30-24 loss to the 49ers, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 223 rushing yards on 36 attempts, including a 75-yard touchdown run by Elijah Mitchell. Despite this, the Cowboys did limit the 49ers to 18 completions for 246 yards through the air. However, the 49ers averaged 9.5 yards per passing attempt, and Dallas allowed a 69.2% completion rate.

The Cowboys’ defense struggled to get off the field, as the 49ers converted on 50% of their third down attempts. Overall, the defense allowed 469 total yards, and the unit managed only two sacks while losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Will The Falcons Win At Home Over The Cowboys?

Atlanta bounced back from a week 7 loss to the Seahawks with a 31-26 road win over the Buccaneers in week 8, bringing their record to 5-3. The Falcons are 3-0 on the road this season, but they’ve struggled at home, going 2-3. They are 4-0 in division games and 5-1 against NFC opponents, putting them in first place in the NFC South. Our projections give them a 70.1% chance of winning the division and a 77.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Heading into week 9, the Falcons rank 15th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -0.1 points per game and are 4-4 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 4-4, with their games averaging 48.6 points compared to an average line of 45.9.

Heading into week 9, the Falcons sit 10th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game, and rank 7th in total yards with 371.6 per game. Atlanta is 6th in passing yards, with 250.9 per game on 34.1 attempts (9th), while their rushing attack ranks 15th with 120.8 yards per game on 25.9 attempts (18th). The Falcons are 12th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate (39.6%) and 14th in red zone efficiency, converting 40% of their trips into touchdowns.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a strong performance in week 8, throwing for 276 yards and 4 touchdowns on 23/29 passing against the Buccaneers. He posted a passer rating of 145 and was sacked twice. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing with 63 yards on 13 carries, while Kyle Pitts had 4 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Despite giving up 330 yards through the air to the Buccaneers, the Falcons’ defense came up with two interceptions in their 31-26 win over Tampa Bay. The Bucs completed 37 passes at a 74% completion rate and converted 64.3% of their third down attempts. Atlanta’s defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and had a negative tackles for loss differential of -4.

Atlanta’s defense allowed 432 total yards, with 102 coming on the ground over 22 attempts. They also gave up three passing touchdowns in the game.