College Football Vegas Power Rating Picks – Bowl Games

The bowl season is almost here. Before we get to that point, Army vs. Navy stands alone this week and it is a game that deserves to stand alone and get all of the fanfare that it deserves. After that, the regular season will be officially over and the bowl season will begin.

Admittedly, this is the time of the year when power ratings mean the least. We’ve spent the last 8-9 weeks making sure that we have these teams properly rated to take on conference opposition. Now, we’ve got a variety of different factors in play. That is why I only update these and the article one time.

Players will declare for the NFL Draft and sit out. Coaches will be leaving their respective programs and I don’t just mean head coaches, but coordinators as well. We’ll wind up with more than a couple interim head coaches (which is about a 50% proposition ATS dating back more than a decade). We’ll have teams that won’t be focused during the bowl prep period. We’ll have suspensions. We’ll have ineligible players. We’ll have it all.

We’ll also get waves of different line moves. The market has already moved a little bit on some games, but there is still value to be had. On the other hand, if you lock in a ticket now, you had better hope everything goes off without a hitch from now until kickoff.

Motivation is something that we cannot quantify. Once the teams get between the lines, instinct will kick in and most guys will be playing hard. For many players, this will be the last time they ever set foot on a competitive football field. Where we see motivation have a huge impact is in terms of preparation. In terms of film study. In terms of picking up new parts of the playbook. These extra practices for coaches can be used in a variety of different ways. Some will coach to win the bowl. Others will coach with next year in mind and use underclassmen in different reps and sets. It is a tough thing to gauge.

So I don’t factor it into my power ratings at all. It is a reason to be on or stay off of a game. It can enhance a position that my numbers like or it can take me off of a game because I’m not sure how that particular set of circumstances will play out on the field. There are a lot of grey areas and unknowns here in the bowl season. These are far from traditional handicaps, especially with a lot of time in between games.

Like I said, this will be my last power ratings update. To make my chart of spreads easier to read, I will delete the games as they get played, but I WILL NOT UPDATE FOR INJURY, SUSPENSIONS, OR DRAFT DECLARATIONS. Make of those what you will. Some players are going to be important enough to affect and alter the line. Many of them will not. That is up to you to decide how much those things matter. I also will not be adjusting numbers for coaches leaving or staying. We don’t know exactly how players will react. Maybe they like the interim. Maybe they hated the other guy. Who knows.

Finally, I did add some HFA where I felt it was warranted. Staying closer to home or playing in a more familiar place can be interpreted in a lot of ways. On one hand, going to a destination and seeing something new is a fun part of the bowl experience. On the other hand, your fan base may be able to come if it’s close. There are some bowl games played in elevation or in different settings that I also felt required a little bit of a bump.

Before we get to the spreads, here is my final 1 through 130 for the season:

Rank	Team	Conference	PR	HFA
1	Clemson	ACC	103	4
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	100.5	4
3	LSU	SEC	98.5	3.5
4	Georgia	SEC	91	4
5	Alabama	SEC	91	4.5
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	88.5	4
7	Utah	Pac-12	88	3.5
8	Michigan	Big Ten	87.5	4
9	Oregon	Pac-12	85.5
10	Florida	SEC	85	3.5
11	Notre Dame	Independent	85	3.5
12	Wisconsin	Big Ten	84.5	3.5
13	Auburn	SEC	84
14	Penn State	Big Ten	83	4
15	Baylor	Big 12	82
16	Iowa State	Big 12	80.5
17	Minnesota	Big Ten	79
18	Texas A&M	SEC	78	3.5
19	USC	Pac-12	78	3.5
20	UCF	AAC	77.5	4
21	Memphis	AAC	77	4
22	TCU	Big 12	77	2.5
23	Washington	Pac-12	77	4
24	Texas	Big 12	77
25	Iowa	Big Ten	76	3.5
26	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	76	3.5
27	Virginia Tech	ACC	75	3.5
28	Virginia	ACC	75
29	Kansas State	Big 12	74.5
30	Boise State	Mountain West	74
31	Navy	AAC	73.5	3.5
32	Louisiana	Sun Belt	73.5
33	Indiana	Big Ten	73	2.5
34	SMU	AAC	73
35	Air Force	Mountain West	72.5
36	Miami FL	ACC	72
37	Washington State	Pac-12	72	4
38	UNC	ACC	72	2.5
39	Tennessee	SEC	72	2.5
40	Cincinnati	AAC	72	2.5
41	Oklahoma State	Big 12	71	3.5
42	Texas Tech	Big 12	71
43	Arizona State	Pac-12	71	4
44	Pitt	ACC	71	3.5
45	Kentucky	SEC	71	2.5
46	Tulane	AAC	70.5
47	Missouri	SEC	70	3.5
48	Louisville	ACC	70
49	BYU	Independent	70
50	South Carolina	SEC	70
51	Michigan State	Big Ten	70
52	Ole Miss	SEC	69.5	2.5
53	California	Pac-12	69.5
54	Florida State	ACC	69
55	Wake Forest	ACC	68.5	2.5
56	Mississippi State	SEC	68.5	3.5
57	Nebraska	Big Ten	68.5	2.5
58	Oregon State	Pac-12	67.5	2
59	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	66.5
60	FAU	Conference USA	66
61	Boston College	ACC	66
62	Stanford	Pac-12	66	3.5
63	Temple	AAC	65.5	3.5
64	UCLA	Pac-12	65	2.5
65	West Virginia	Big 12	65	3.5
66	Utah State	Mountain West	65	3.5
67	Purdue	Big Ten	65	2.5
68	Duke	ACC	64.5
69	Tulsa	AAC	64.5
70	Central Michigan	MAC	64.5	2.5
71	Marshall	Conference USA	64	2.5
72	Wyoming	Mountain West	64	4
73	San Diego State	Mountain West	64
74	Western Michigan	MAC	64	3.5
75	Buffalo	MAC	64	3.5
76	Southern Miss	Conference USA	63
77	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	63
78	Fresno State	Mountain West	63	4
79	Illinois	Big Ten	62.5	2
80	Ohio	MAC	62.5	3.5
81	Houston	AAC	62	3.5
82	Arizona	Pac-12	62
83	NC State	ACC	62
84	Colorado	Pac-12	62
85	Hawaii	Mountain West	62	2.5
86	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	62
87	Colorado State	Mountain West	62
88	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	61.5	3.5
89	Ball State	MAC	61.5	2
90	Kansas	Big 12	61	2.5
91	Syracuse	ACC	61
92	Northwestern	Big Ten	61
93	Middle Tenn	Conference USA	61	3.5
94	UAB	Conference USA	60.5	3.5
95	Georgia Tech	ACC	60	3.5
96	Georgia State	Sun Belt	59	2
97	San Jose State	Mountain West	59	2.5
98	USF	AAC	59
99	Liberty	Independent	59
100	Army	Independent	59	4
101	Miami OH	MAC	58.5
102	Charlotte	Conference USA	58.5	2.5
103	Eastern Michigan	MAC	58.5
104	Troy	Sun Belt	58	3.5
105	Arkansas	SEC	58
106	Maryland	Big Ten	58
107	FIU	Conference USA	58
108	Louisiana Monroe	Sun Belt	57.5	2.5
109	Kent State	MAC	57.5	2
110	Toledo	MAC	57	3.5
111	Nevada	Mountain West	57
112	Northern Illinois	MAC	57
113	North Texas	Conference USA	57	3.5
114	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	57	2.5
115	Vanderbilt	SEC	56
116	East Carolina	AAC	55	2.5
117	Rice	Conference USA	54	2
118	Texas State	Sun Belt	53	2
119	UNLV	Mountain West	53	2.5
120	New Mexico	Mountain West	49	2
121	South Alabama	Sun Belt	48.5
122	UTSA	Conference USA	47	2.5
123	New Mexico State	Independent	47
124	Old Dominion	Conference USA	47	3.5
125	Rutgers	Big Ten	46	2.5
126	UConn	AAC	44	2
127	UTEP	Conference USA	43.5	2
128	Bowling Green	MAC	39.5	2
129	Akron	MAC	35	2
130	UMass	Independent	27	2.5

Here are my adjustments following conference championship games:

Up: Louisiana +1, Baylor +1, LSU +1.5, Clemson +1, Cincinnati +1

Down: Memphis -1.5, UAB -2, Oklahoma -1.5, Utah -2

Nothing big or major. A few things to adjust to market. That’s really about it.

Here are my bowl game spreads, including HFA where necessary:

Date	Away	Home	My Line
12/14	Army	Navy (N – Philadelphia)	-14.5
12/20
	Bahamas Bowl	Nassau, Bahamas
	Buffalo	Charlotte	+5.5
	Frisco Bowl	Frisco, TX
	Kent State	Utah State	-8.5
12/21
	New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque, NM
	Central Michigan	San Diego St (1 pt HFA)	-0.5
	Cure Bowl	Orlando, FL
	Liberty	Georgia Southern	-4
	Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, FL
	SMU	FAU (full HFA)	+4
	Camellia Bowl	Montgomery, AL
	FIU	Arkansas State	-3.5
	Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas, NV
	Washington	Boise State	+3
	New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans, LA
	UAB	App State	-16
12/23
	Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa, FL
	Marshall	UCF (1 pt HFA)	-14.5
12/24
	Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu, HI
	BYU	Hawaii (full HFA)	+5.5
12/26
	Independence Bowl	Shreveport, LA
	Miami FL	LA Tech	+10
	Quick Lane Bowl	Detroit, MI
	Pitt	Eastern Michigan	+12.5
12/27
	Military Bowl	Annapolis, MD
	UNC	Temple	+6.5
	Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, NY
	Michigan State	Wake Forest	+1.5
	Texas Bowl	Houston, TX
	Oklahoma State	Texas A&M	-7
	Holiday Bowl	San Diego, CA
	USC (1 pt HFA)	Iowa	+3
	Cheez-It Bowl	Phoenix, AZ
	Washington State	Air Force	-0.5
12/28
	Camping World Bowl	Orlando, FL
	Iowa State	Notre Dame	-4.5
	Cotton Bowl	Arlington, TX
	Memphis	Penn State	-6
	Peach Bowl	Atlanta, GA
	Oklahoma	LSU	-10
	Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, AZ
	Clemson	Ohio State	+2.5
12/30
	First Responder Bowl	Dallas, TX
	Western Michigan	Western Kentucky	-2.5
	Redbox Bowl	Santa Clara, CA
	Illinois	Cal	-7
	Orange Bowl	Miami, FL
	Virginia	Florida	-10
	Music City Bowl	Nashville, TN
	Miss State	Louisville (1 pt HFA)	-2.5
12/31
	Sun Bowl	El Paso, TX
	Florida State	Arizona State (1 pt HFA)	-3
	Liberty Bowl	Memphis, TN
	Kansas State	Navy (1 pt HFA)	PK
	Arizona Bowl	Tucson, AZ
	Georgia State	Wyoming (1.5 pt HFA)	-6.5
	Alamo Bowl	San Antonio, TX
	Texas	Utah	-11
	Belk Bowl	Charlotte, NC
	Kentucky	Virginia Tech	-4
1/1
	Citrus Bowl	Orlando, FL
	Michigan	Alabama	-3.5
	Outback Bowl	Tampa, FL
	Minnesota	Auburn	-5
	Rose Bowl	Pasadena, CA
	Wisconsin	Oregon	-1
	Sugar Bowl	New Orleans, LA
	Baylor	Georgia	-9
1/2
	Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham, AL
	Boston College	Cincinnati	-6
	Gator Bowl	Jacksonville, FL
	Tennessee	Indiana	-1
1/3
	Potato Bowl	Boise, ID
	Ohio	Nevada (1 pt HFA)	+4.5
1/4
	Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth, TX
	Tulane	Southern Miss	+7.5
1/6
	LendingTree Bowl	Mobile, AL
	Miami (OH)	Louisiana	-15
1/13
	National Championship	New Orleans, LA
	TBD	TBD

I would never play a bowl game solely on a power rating stance without a really, really big overlay. We have strength of schedule differences and a lot of other factors that come into play. I would consider them and would consider getting in front of a line move whenever possible, but I was out of town for the weekend when lines posted, so some of the games have moved already. Some have moved with my PRs and others have moved against them.

I do have an overlay on Army/Navy, but keep in mind that an option game with a running clock often suppresses offense, which means that you have to consider that with a projected spread. My number is a pure power rating. Considering the teams and the very low total, my line is more like 12 or 12.5 when adjusted for the scoring environment.

Bowl game lines to consider:

Central Michigan +4.5 vs. San Diego State

BYU -2 vs. Hawaii

USC +1.5 (watch for NFL declarations here) vs. Iowa

Utah -6.5 vs. Texas

Michigan +7 vs. Alabama

Minnesota +8 vs. Auburn

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this article this season and I hope that it has been beneficial for you in terms of creating your own numbers or at least getting a feel for the process. I think it is an important and useful skill and hopefully you will give it a try over the summer to get ready for the upcoming season.

Good luck in bowls, y’all and thank you for reading!