Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction 7/26/24
At 6:40 PM ET, the Guardians and Phillies square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are favored on the money line (-174). The Guardians are +146, and the over/under line is 8.5 runs.
Cleveland is 61-41 this season, while the Phillies are 64-38. Ben Lively will go for the Guardians, and he is facing off against Cristopher Sanchez. The Phillies are in first place in the NL East, while the Guardians are atop the AL Central. This one can be seen on BSGL.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -174
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 ET on Friday, July 26th.
HOW TO BET THE GUARDIANS VS PHILLIES:
- We have the Phillies winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Guardians to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Guardians Records & Stats
Cleveland closed out their series vs. the Tigers with a 3-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Guardians were the heavy favorite at -149. Things really got away from the Guardians in the 2nd inning, as the Tigers scored three runs in the inning. Cleveland’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 6th.
Gavin Williams put together a good start for the Guardians, going six innings and giving up just three runs on six hits. He also issued only two walks and struck out nine Tigers. Despite pitching well, he was still tagged with the loss.
Cleveland is on the road today to take on the Phillies with an overall record of 61-41, good for 1st place in the AL Central. The Guardians hold a 4.5-game lead over the Twins for the division lead. So far, they are 17-15 in divisional matchups.
The Guardians have been really good at home this season, going 33-15, but they are just above .500 at 28-26 on the road. Cleveland has gone 4-6 across their last 10 games and split their most recent series 2-2 with the Tigers. As the underdog, Cleveland has lost seven straight, and they are 16-18 as the underdog overall. When favored, the Guardians are 45-23 this year.
When the Cleveland Guardians are on the road, they have been a solid bet on the run line, going 27-27. Overall, they are 49-53 against the run line, with a scoring margin of +0.8 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 20-14 against the run line, while they are just 29-39 when favored.
The Cleveland Guardians are on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which matches the combined run average for the Guardians’ games this season. Cleveland has a 49-47 over/under record on the year, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Guardians have gone 14-13. Overall, 55 of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs, and the under has hit in their last two games.
Cleveland is sending Ben Lively to the mound today vs. the Phillies, and he comes in with a record of 8-6 and an ERA of 3.57. Lively has made 17 starts this year, and his last outing came on July 21st, where he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking back at his last three outings, Lively has finished with a no-decision, win, and loss. His ERA on the road is 4.39, compared to 2.68 at home. Lively has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. So far, he has five quality starts this year.
The Guardians come into today’s game averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 13th in the league, and have the 13th most home runs in the league. Jose Ramirez has been a big part of their offense, as he is 2nd in the league with 82 RBIs and has 24 homers, which is the best mark on the team and 5th in the league. Ramirez is batting .273 for the season.
Over his last six games, Ramirez has gone 6/23 with three RBIs. Jhonkensy Noel has also gone deep in his last five games, but he is just 3/13 in that stretch. For the season, Noel is batting .231.
Phillies Records & Stats
The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Twins with a 5-4 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Twins scored three runs in the bottom of the 7th. Philadelphia was the -135 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Aaron Nola was on the hill for the Phillies, going six innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out six. However, the Phillies couldn’t close things out, and Gregory Soto took the loss out of the bullpen. The Phillies also wasted a big game from Trea Turner, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/5.
Philadelphia is hosting the Guardians today with an overall record of 64-38, which has them leading the NL East by 9.5 games over the Braves. So far, they have gone 15-10 in divisional games. The Phillies will look to get back on track today, as they dropped two of three in their most recent series vs. the Twins.
At home, the Phillies are 37-16 this season compared to a 27-22 mark on the road. As the favorite, Philadelphia has gone 56-30 and 36-14 when favored at home. The Phillies’ overall series record is 19-11-5, but they have dropped three straight series.
When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game, which is why they are 52-50 against the run line this season. They are 27-26 against the run line at home, where they have a run differential of +1.6 per game. As the favorite, they are 44-42 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 8-8.
When the Philadelphia Phillies play at home this season, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game. Overall, their over/under record is 46-51, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 7-11. In 84 games, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs in 26 games (25.5%), while it has been set under 8.5 runs in 58 games (56.9%).
Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates, where he took the loss. In that start, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and seven hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Sánchez has made 19 starts and has a record of 7-5. His ERA for the season is 2.97, along with a WHIP of 1.24. Sánchez has one complete game shutout this year and 10 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.35 strikeouts and just 2.31 walks.
Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are 5th in runs per game (4.9), and are the league’s top-scoring team when playing at home. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and 3rd in team batting average. The Phillies also do a good job of avoiding strikeouts and are near the top of the league in walks.
Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Harper’s 23 homers leading the team and Bohm’s 11 homers coming in 5th. Bohm is batting .296 for the season and Harper is right behind him at .292. Harper has gone just 4/22 in his last five games, but he does have two homers in that stretch. Kyle Schwarber is 2nd on the team with 19 homers but is batting just .238 for the season.