Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/24

FOX will broadcast the week 11 non-conference matchup between the Browns and Saints, with the Saints as the home team at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints are the slight favorite with a point spread of -1 and their money line odds at -116. The game is set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th, with the Browns’ money line odds at -104 and the over/under line at 44 points.

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New Orleans Saints -1

This game will be played at Caesars Superdome at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th.

WHY BET THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:

  • We have the Saints winning this one by a score of 26 to 23
  • Not only do we have the Saints winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 44 points

Will The Browns Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Heading into week 11, the Browns have a 2-7 record, putting them 4th in the AFC North. Our projections give Cleveland just a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs and no chance of winning their division. They rank 19th in our NFL power rankings.

Against the spread, the Browns are 3-6, with all three of their wins coming as underdogs. Their average scoring margin this season is -7.2 points per game. Cleveland’s over/under record is 3-6, with their games averaging 40.1 points (the O/U line has averaged 41.3).

Heading into week 11, the Browns rank 31st in our offensive power rankings and are 26th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.4. They are 31st in yards per game, with 274.4, and 29th in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 28.7%. Despite being 19th in red zone attempts, they lead the league in red zone conversion percentage.

Jameis Winston threw for 235 yards in week 9, with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions, after his 334-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 8. Cedric Tillman led the team with 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, while Nick Chubb had 39 rushing yards on 15 carries.

Cleveland’s defense gave up 27 points in their most recent game, as the Browns lost to the Chargers 27-10. Despite allowing just 66.7% completions to the Chargers, they gave up 246 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. The Browns’ defense held the Chargers to 35.7% on third down but allowed some big plays, as the Chargers averaged 9.1 yards per passing attempt.

One positive was that the Browns’ defense recorded six sacks in the game. The Browns also defended the run well, as the Chargers managed just 96 yards on 23 rushing attempts.

Will The Saints Win At Home Over The Browns?

With a 3-7 record, the Saints sit 21st in our power rankings, giving them just a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.6% chance of winning the NFC South. New Orleans is 2-3 in division games and 3-4 in conference play, placing them 3rd in the NFC South. They are 2-3 at home and 1-4 on the road.

The Saints are 4-6 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of -1.9 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-4, with their games averaging 47.3 points compared to an O/U line of 43.4. In week 10, New Orleans snapped a six-game losing streak with a 20-17 win over the Falcons. They were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and the teams combined for 37 points, going under the 47-point line.

Heading into week 11, the Saints rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 13th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.7 points per game, and 16th in total yards, with 334.8 per game. New Orleans ranks 15th in passing attempts and 16th in passing yards, averaging 212.4 per game. On the ground, they are 11th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards, with 122.4 per game. The Saints are 16th in the league in 3rd down conversions, with a 38.2% success rate, and they rank 20th in red zone conversion percentage.

Derek Carr posted a passer rating of 126 in week 10, throwing for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. Alvin Kamara had 55 rushing yards on 17 carries, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with 3 catches for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Saints scored all 20 of their points in the 2nd quarter against Atlanta. Chris Olave, who had 107 receiving yards in week 8, is on injured reserve with a concussion.

Despite giving up 181 rushing yards on 32 attempts, the Saints’ defense made some key plays in their 20-17 win over the Falcons. New Orleans held Atlanta to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down and came up with three sacks. They also limited the Falcons to 287 passing yards on 23 completions and did not allow a passing touchdown.

The Saints’ defense also forced one interception and made life difficult for the Falcons’ quarterbacks, as they had a QB hit differential of +8 and a tackles for loss advantage of +4. New Orleans will be looking to tighten up against the run in their next game, as they allowed 468 total yards to Atlanta.