Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 8/5/24
From loanDepot Park in Miami, we have the Reds and Marlins facing off in an NL matchup. Monday’s first pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET, and the Reds are the betting favorite on the money line (-141). The Marlins have a two-game winning streak and their money line odds are sitting at +119. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Cincinnati will be looking to keep their winning streak going, as they have won three straight. They are 5th in the NL Central, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East. Nick Martinez will start for the Reds, while Roddery Munoz goes for the Marlins. BSFL will be televising Monday’s game.
CINCINNATI REDS VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -141
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, August 5th.
HOW TO BET THE REDS VS MARLINS:
- We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over
Reds Records & Stats
Cincinnati closed out their series vs. the Giants with a tough 8-2 loss. Heading into the game, the Reds were the slight favorite at -113 on the money line. Things started off well for the Reds, as they got on the board with two runs in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Giants scored two runs in the top of the 2nd.
Carson Spiers got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits. The Reds also issued three walks and hit a batter. Santiago Espinal was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is 5th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by nine games. Overall, the Reds are 53-58 as they play on the road vs. the Marlins. Cincinnati is 14-15 against other teams in the NL Central.
So far, the Reds have been slightly better at home, going 28-31 compared to 25-27 on the road. As the road favorite, the Reds have gone 8-4 this year, and they are 27-25 as the favorite overall. When the underdog, Cincinnati is 26-33 this season, and they have dropped two straight road games heading into today’s matchup.
Despite a losing record overall, the Reds have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 58-53. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 32-20 against the run line. Cincinnati has been a better bet as an underdog, going 36-23 against the run line in those games. The Reds’ average run margin in their winning games is +3.7, compared to -2.9 in their losses.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the Miami Marlins. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is exactly the combined run average for Reds games this season. Cincinnati’s over/under record for the season is 49-58, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 10-9. The over has hit in two straight Reds games.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Marlins. He has made five starts and 31 appearances this season, coming in with a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 3.65. Martinez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.13. The last time he pitched was on August 2nd out of the bullpen. In that outing, he went one inning, giving up one earned run, two hits, and two walks. Martinez did not give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight outings. His ERA on the road is 2.67, compared to 3.65 at home.
Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario are both near the top of the league in home runs, with 18 apiece. De La Cruz is batting .255 for the season and is 3rd on the team with 45 RBIs. Candelario comes into the game with the 2nd most RBIs on the team, but he is just 4/28 in his last eight games. Spencer Steer is the Reds’ top run producer, as he leads the team with 65 RBIs.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better home team this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Overall, they are batting just .227, which is 22nd in the MLB.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami closed out their series vs. the Braves with an impressive 7-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +211 on the money line. It was a six-run 4th inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Braves could only score three runs the entire game. Miami’s offense was carried by Jonah Bride, who went 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Edward Cabrera got the start for the Marlins, going five innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out eight Braves batters. Miami’s bullpen closed things out with two scoreless innings, and the Marlins picked up the json as the +211 underdog.
Miami is 42-70 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 24.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins are just 11-23 against other teams in the NL East. They have won two straight games, and they split their most recent series vs. the Braves.
At home, the Marlins are 22-34 this year, and they are 20-36 on the road. So far, they are 4-13 as the favorite and 38-57 as the underdog. Miami’s overall series record is 10-21-5 this year, and they are just .500 at 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When it comes to betting the run line, the Miami Marlins have been a good team to back as the underdog, as they are 51-44 against the run line in that role. They have been especially profitable at home, where they are 25-31 against the run line. Miami’s average run differential in winning games is +2.8, while it is -3.7 in losses.
The Miami Marlins are at home today against the Cincinnati Reds, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have played to an over/under record of 60-49 on the season, and their games have averaged exactly 8.5 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, Miami has gone over the total 18 times and under 17 times. In total, 19 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 17.0% of their contests. Miami has played to the under in their last four games.
Roddery Muñoz will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Rays on July 31st, he went 5 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and 7 strikeouts. Looking at his overall numbers, Muñoz has made 12 starts, and his ERA is 5.46. Out of his 13 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts. Muñoz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.38. This year, he has allowed a total of 19 home runs and is averaging 4.36 walks per nine innings compared to 7.77 strikeouts.
Over his last eight games, Jake Burger has gone 10/30 with four home runs. This has helped him take over the team lead in RBIs, as he has 47 for the season and is also leading the Marlins with 17 homers. For the season, Burger is batting .240. Xavier Edwards has also been hot of late, going 13/30 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs per game at 3.6. This is also where they are at in terms of home runs, as they have just 99 homers for the season. Miami’s team batting average is .238, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and OPS.