California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs Betting Pick & Prediction 11/30/24

SMU is the heavy favorite in this week 14 matchup as they host the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET, and ESPN2 will be handling the broadcast. The over/under line is at 57.5 points, and the Mustangs are -13.5 point favorites at home. The money line odds have SMU at -498 and California at +371. The Mustangs come in with a 10-1 record, while the Golden Bears are 6-5 on the season.

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS VS SMU MUSTANGS BETTING PICK

The Pick: SMU Mustangs -13.5

This game will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium at 3:30 ET on Saturday, November 30th.

WHY BET THE SMU MUSTANGS:

  • We have the SMU Mustangs winning this one by a score of 40 to 21
  • Not only do we have the SMU Mustangs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -13.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 57.5 points

Will The California Golden Bears Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

At 6-5 this season, California is 3-3 on the road and 2-2 at home. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible, according to projections. The Golden Bears are ranked 46th in our power rankings heading into their Week 14 matchup with SMU.

California has been favored in six of their 11 games this season, going 4-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +7.2 points per game, and they are 6-4 against the spread, covering in three of four road games.

The over/under line for this week is 57.5 points. California’s games have averaged an over/under line of 52 points, and their over/under record is 3-5-2, with their games averaging 48.6 points per contest.

Heading into week 14, California’s offense ranks 54th in points per game, scoring 27.9 on average, and they are 74th in our offensive power rankings. Their strength is their passing game, where they rank 21st in passing yards per game, averaging 276.1 yards. They are 12th in completions, with 24.5 per game, and 22nd in attempts, with 36.1 per game. Their third-down conversion rate is 39.4%, placing them 74th nationally.

Fernando Mendoza leads the passing attack with 3,004 yards and a passer rating of 99. He has completed 68.7% of his passes, throwing 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. On the ground, Jaivian Thomas has rushed for 598 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. Nyziah Hunter is the top receiver with 493 yards and five touchdowns.

California’s defense, ranked 25th nationally, is allowing 20.7 points per game this season. In their recent game against Stanford, they gave up 21 points but limited the Cardinal to 261 total yards, including 120 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 141 passing yards.

Opponents are averaging 109.6 rushing yards per game against California, ranking them 22nd in the nation. The defense has faced 35.4 pass attempts per game, allowing 228.3 passing yards, but they’ve held quarterbacks to a passer rating of 67.4, the 12th-lowest in the country.

Are The SMU Mustangs Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

At 10-1, SMU is 12th in our power rankings, and they have a 42% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. They are already bowl-eligible and have a 62.7% chance of making the playoff. SMU has been strong on the road (4-0) and is 4-1 at home this season.

SMU’s ATS record stands at 6-3, with a +18.3 average scoring margin. They are 3-1 against the spread on the road and 3-2 at home. As the favorite, they are 4-3 ATS, and they’ve covered both games as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is 57.5 points. SMU’s games have averaged 60.3 points, with an average line of 54 points. They are 5-4 against the over/under this season.

SMU’s offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, ranking 5th in the nation heading into week 14. They are 26th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,521 yards with a passer rating of 107, completing 66.7% of his passes. He has 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

SMU ranks 30th in passing yards per game, averaging 260.6 yards, and they convert 47.2% of their third downs. On the ground, they average 189.5 rushing yards per game. Brashard Smith leads the rushing attack with 1,086 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry.

SMU’s defense put together an impressive performance in their recent game against Virginia, allowing just 7 points. They held the Cavaliers to 173 total yards, including only 65 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 108 passing yards.

For the season, SMU ranks 9th nationally in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 97.3 yards per game. They are also 29th in the country in completion percentage allowed, holding opposing quarterbacks to 55.5%.