Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 9/9/24
Monday’s Orioles vs. Red Sox game has a first pitch set for 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East, with a record of 72-71, while the Orioles are 2nd in the division, despite being on a two-game losing streak.
Baltimore is favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at +101 compared to the Red Sox at -120. Tonight’s over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and the game will be televised on NESN. Brayan Bello is expected to start for the Red Sox, while the Orioles are sending Cade Povich to the mound.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS BOSTON RED SOX BETTING PICK
The Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline +101
This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Monday, September 9th.
HOW TO BET THE ORIOLES VS RED SOX:
- We have the Orioles winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Red Sox to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Orioles Records & Stats
Baltimore closed out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Orioles were the heavy favorite at -218. It was the Rays scoring two runs in the 6th inning that was the difference, as the Orioles could only manage five hits and didn’t score a run. Gunnar Henderson had a good day at the plate, going 3/4 with a run scored, but the Orioles couldn’t get him home.
Corbin Burnes got the start for the Orioles and took the loss. He went six innings, giving up two earned runs on seven hits. The Orioles also issued two walks and hit a batter. Cedric Mullins was the only other Orioles hitter with more than one hit, going 2/4.
The Orioles come into today’s game vs. the Red Sox having dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Rays. Currently, the Orioles are 82-62 overall, putting them just a half-game behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. So far, they have gone 29-17 in AL East matchups.
At home, the Orioles have gone 42-33 this season and are 40-29 on the road. As the favorite, the Orioles are 67-47 this year and 15-15 as the underdog. The Orioles’ overall series record is 24-14-7, and they are just .500 (5-5) over their last 10 games.
When the Orioles are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 42-27 on the run line away from home this season. Their average run margin in those games is +0.9 runs per game, and they have covered the run line in two straight games as the favorite. Overall, they are 78-66 on the run line this season, with an average run margin of +0.6 runs per game.
With an average combined run average of 9.2, the Baltimore Orioles have seen a lot of high-scoring games this season. Their over/under record is 77-56, and when the line is set at 9.5, they have gone over in six of eight games. However, only 2.1% of their games have had a line set at 9.5 runs, as the average line for their games is 8 runs.
The Orioles are sending Cade Povich to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 2-7 with an ERA of 5.76. Povich’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.60. In his 12 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Povich’s most recent outing was a good one, as he didn’t allow a run in 7 1/3 innings of work vs. the White Sox. Before that, he had allowed at least two earned runs in four straight outings. Opponents are batting .283 off Povich this season.
Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 39 homers leading the team and Henderson’s 36 homers being the 2nd most on the team and 6th most in the league. Henderson has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers. Overall, he is batting .282 for the season. Santander comes into the game with a batting average of just .239.
As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the top team in the league in isolated power and have the league’s top slugging percentage.
Red Sox Records & Stats
Heading into their last game vs. the White Sox, the Red Sox closed out the series with a 7-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they were the heavy favorite at -282. Offensively, the Red Sox only scored two runs on eight hits and didnjson’t hit a home run.
Richard Fitts got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up six hits but no earned runs. Boston’s defense was also an issue, as they had three errors.
Boston is 72-71 overall and trails the Yankees by 10 games in the AL East. Currently, they are 3rd in the division and have gone 18-18 against other teams in the AL East. The Red Sox are at home today, hosting the Orioles, with the Orioles holding a half-game lead over the Red Sox for 2nd place in the AL East.
At home, the Red Sox are 33-39 compared to 39-32 on the road. As the underdog, Boston has dropped five straight, and they are 33-39 as the underdog overall. When favored, the Red Sox have gone 39-32 this year. They are also coming off losing two straight games as the Red Sox are just 3-7 over their last 10.
When the Red Sox are favored, they are 26-45 against the run line this season. However, when they are the underdog, they have been a much better bet at 40-32. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.8, while it is -4.0 in losses.
The Boston Red Sox are playing at home against the Baltimore Orioles today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is also 9.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 73-63. When the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs this season, the Red Sox have gone 12-14 in those games. Overall, 16 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, accounting for 11.2% of their games this season.
Brayan Bello will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Red Sox today. Against the Mets, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Bello has given up at least one homer in three of those outings. For the season, he has a record of 12-7 and an ERA of 4.75. Bello’s WHIP for the season is 1.38. Out of his 26 starts, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 8.56 strikeouts per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is 10th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the league’s best team BABIP at .32. The Red Sox are also one of the league’s best hitting teams, with a team batting average of .256.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been two of the league’s top power hitters this season, with Devers’ 28 homers leading the team and O’Neill’s 27 being the 2nd most in the league. Devers also leads the Red Sox with 81 RBIs, while O’Neill has driven in 53 runs. O’Neill has been hot of late, going 6/20 in his last six games with two homers.