Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 7/13/24
From PETCO Park in San Diego, we have an NL matchup between the Braves and Padres. The forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the low 70s. First pitch is at 7:15 PM ET, and FOX is carrying this one on TV.
The Padres are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -110 compared to the Braves at -108. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and Atlanta is 2nd in the NL East, while the Padres are 3rd in the NL West. Reynaldo Lopez will start for the Braves, while the Padres are giving the ball to Dylan Cease. San Diego comes in having lost five straight.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK
The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -110
This game will be played at PETCO Park at 7:15 ET on Saturday, July 13th.
HOW TO BET THE BRAVES VS PADRES:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Padres to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Atlanta cruised to an easy 6-1 win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. The Braves had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Padres, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Braves were at +100 on the money line.
Spencer Schwellenbach pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with three strikeouts and allowed just one hit. On the other side, Matt Waldron got the start for the Padres, going seven innings and giving up four runs.
Marcell Ozuna and Orlando Arcia each homered for the Braves, while Adam Duvall scored twice and drove in a run while going 2/4. Xander Bogaerts had a two-hit game for the Padres.
Braves Records & Stats
With an overall record of 52-41, the Braves are 8.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, they are on the road, taking on the Padres and lead the series 1-0. So far, they have gone 14-12 in NL East matchups this year.
At home, the Braves have been good this season, going 29-17. On the road, they are just one game above .500 at 23-24. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 48-34 and just 4-7 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 17-11-3 this season, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games overall.
When the Braves win, they win by an average of 3.7 runs per game, and when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.1 runs per game. They are 44-49 on the run line this season, including 23-24 on the run line on the road. Overall, they have a run differential of +0.7 runs per game.
The Braves are on the road against the Padres, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Atlanta’s games this season is 7.9 runs, and their over/under record is 32-56. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 6-10. Overall, 78.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at two games.
Reynaldo López has been outstanding this season, coming into the game with a record of 7-2 and an ERA of 1.71. He has made 16 appearances and 16 starts, finishing with a WHIP of 1.13. So far, López has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 9.33 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he pitched six scoreless innings, giving up just two hits. He finished with the win in that game. Before that, he had given up two earned runs in three straight starts. López has been especially tough at home, coming in with a record of 4-0 and an ERA of 1.27.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late, going 10/28 in his last seven games with four homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .301 and is 2nd in the league with 77 RBIs. Ozuna is also on a four-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 13 homers but is batting just .231 this season.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They are also just 17th in home runs and have a below-average team on-base percentage. Overall, their batting average and slugging percentage are both right around league average.
Padres Records & Stats
With an overall record of 49-48, the Padres are 3rd in the NL West, eight games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have dropped five straight games, and they are 3-7 over their last ten. San Diego’s struggles have been part of a larger issue for the NL West, as the division is just 15-17 in interleague play this year.
At home, the Padres are 25-27 this year and 24-21 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres have gone 28-29 and 21-19 as the underdog. One issue for the Padres has been their play at home, as they have dropped five straight at home. San Diego’s overall series record is 17-12-3, and they have lost two straight series.
San Diego is 18-34 against the run line at home, and 31-14 against the run line on the road. The Padres have a run differential of -0.6 runs per game at home and +0.9 runs per game on the road. They are 28-12 against the run line as an underdog and 21-36 against the run line as a favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7 runs per game, while their average run differential in losses is -3.5 runs per game.
When the Padres play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and the over/under record for the season is 52-44. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 16-16. Overall, 59.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and they have gone under in their last two games.
Dylan Cease will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Diamondbacks, where he took the loss and gave up three earned runs in seven innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Cease has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 7-8 with a 4.21 ERA. Looking at his home/away splits, Cease has a record of 3-5 at home with a 3.84 ERA compared to 4-3 on the road with a 5.99 ERA. Cease has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. Before that, he had a stretch of three straight starts without giving up a homer.
San Diego’s offense has been one of the most consistent units in the league this season, as they are 13th in runs per game (4.5) and are 2nd in team batting average at .260. They also have the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league and have been one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game.
Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top power threat this season, as his 14 homers are the most on the team and 10th in the league. However, he has hit just .231 over his last seven games. Profar’s 59 RBIs are also the best mark on the team. Both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth are also near the top of the league in home runs, with 14 and 13, respectively.