Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25

The Chiefs and Broncos will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 4:25 ET on CBS. The Broncos are heavily favored with a money line of -578, and the point spread is -10.5 in this week 18 AFC West matchup. The game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High, and the over/under line is set at 39.5 points. The Chiefs’ money line odds are +412.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS DENVER BRONCOS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Broncos -10.5

This game will be played at Empower Field at Mile High at 4:25 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

WHY BET THE DENVER BRONCOS:

  • We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 27 to 15
  • Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -10.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 39.5 points

Will The Chiefs Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

With a 15-1 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC and have a 100% chance of winning the AFC West. They’ve won six straight, including a 19-point victory over the Steelers in week 17. Before that, they defeated the Texans, Browns, Chargers, and Raiders, with their last loss coming in week 11 against the Bills.

Kansas City ranks 20th in our power rankings and has a +6.1 scoring margin. They are 7-8-1 against the spread, but have covered in three straight games. Their O/U record is 7-9, with their games averaging 42.1 points.

In our offensive power rankings, the Chiefs sit 9th in the NFL. They are 11th in points per game (24.1) and 13th in total yards per game (342). Kansas City ranks 10th in passing yards per game (231.8) and 16th in rushing yards per game (110.2). On 3rd down, they lead the NFL with a 50% conversion rate, and they are 4th in red zone attempts, though they rank 24th in red zone conversion percentage (12.3%).

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a strong performance in week 17, throwing for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Steelers, with a passer rating of 127. Travis Kelce led the team with 8 catches for 84 yards. Kansas City scored 13 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters in week 17, and they converted 4 of 5 red zone opportunities.

In their 29-10 win over the Steelers, the Chiefs’ defense was strong, allowing just 162 passing yards and forcing five sacks. Despite this, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 202 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Pittsburgh managed just 10 points, and Kansas City’s defense didn’t allow a passing touchdown.

The Chiefs also came up with one interception and held the Steelers to a 62.2% completion percentage. However, they did allow Pittsburgh to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. Kansas City’s defense was effective in generating pressure, with a +7 advantage in quarterback hits and a +4 advantage in tackles for loss.

Are The Broncos Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Heading into week 18, the Broncos are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 30-24 loss to the Bengals in week 17. This dropped Denver to 9-7, putting them 7th in the AFC and 18th in our power rankings. They have a 64.5% chance of making the playoffs but no chance of winning the AFC West.

Denver is 11-5 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +4.8. They are 7-0 ATS as favorites and 4-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in five straight games.

Heading into week 18, the Broncos rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.2, but sit 22nd in passing yards per game (205.6) and total yards per game (314.9). Denver is 17th in rushing yards per game, with 109.4, and 17th in 3rd-down conversions.

Bo Nix threw for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17, with 24 completions on 31 attempts. Marvin Mims Jr. led the team with 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jaleel McLaughlin had 69 rushing yards on 10 carries.

In their 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals, the Broncos’ defense gave up 384 passing yards on 39 completions. They allowed three passing touchdowns and 499 total yards. Despite this, they put together a strong pass rush, sacking the quarterback seven times and hitting him 11 more times than Denver’s QB was hit.

Cincinnati was able to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts, and the Broncos’ defense struggled to stop the run, allowing 115 rushing yards on 28 attempts.