Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25

The Patriots are +123 on the money line as they host the Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Bills are favored at -2.5 on the road, with the over/under line set at 38 points. This week 18 matchup is being televised on CBS, and the Bills are the -146 favorite on the money line.

BUFFALO BILLS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New England Patriots +2.5

This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

WHY BET THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

• We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 22 to 16
• Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 38 points

Will The Bills Pick Up A Win On The Road?

With a 13-3 record, the Bills have already locked up the AFC East and have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Buffalo is currently on a three-game winning streak, including a 40-14 win over the Jets in week 17. The Bills were 10.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 10-6 this season.

Buffalo ranks 4th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 18. Their average scoring margin this season is +10.2, and their O/U record is 10-6, with their games averaging 53.4 points per game.

Heading into week 18, the Bills are 3rd in our offensive power rankings and 2nd in the NFL in scoring, with 31.8 points per game. They are 9th in passing yards per game (234.1) and 9th in rushing, averaging 131.2 yards. Buffalo ranks 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 44.4% success rate, and they are 4th in red zone attempts, but they have struggled to convert, ranking 31st in the NFL.

Josh Allen threw for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 17, finishing with a passer rating of 104. James Cook led the team in rushing with 53 yards on 15 carries, while Tyrell Shavers had a 69-yard reception. Cook also had 100 rushing yards in week 16 and 105 yards in week 15.

In their 40-14 win over the Jets, the Bills’ defense recorded four sacks and came away with two interceptions. The Jets did have some success running the ball, gaining 112 yards on just 21 attempts. However, Buffalo limited New York to 169 passing yards and forced them into a 71.9% completion percentage. The Bills also defended the pass well, allowing just 5.3 yards per attempt, but did give up two passing touchdowns.

On third downs, the Bills allowed the Jets to convert 44.4% of their chances. Despite the Jets finding some running room, Buffalo’s defense was aggressive up front, winning the tackle for loss and quarterback hit differentials.

Will The Patriots Win At Home Over The Bills?

Heading into week 18, the Patriots are on a six-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-13. They rank 27th in our NFL power rankings and have a -8.4 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, New England is 6-9-1, having been the underdog in all of their games so far. Their O/U record is 10-6, with their games averaging 41.7 points compared to a 41.3-point line.

New England’s last win came in week 10, when they beat the Bears 19-3. Since then, they’ve lost six straight, including a 33-point loss to the Chargers in week 17. In week 16, they covered the spread against the Bills, losing by 3 points as 14-point underdogs.

Heading into week 18, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 27th in the NFL in points per game (16.6) and 30th in yards per game (290.9). New England ranks 22nd in passing attempts, but they are last in passing yards per game, averaging 172.6. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game. The Patriots have struggled on third down, ranking 26th in the league with a 35% conversion rate, but they are 6th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 17, New England scored just 7 points in a 40-7 loss to the Chargers. Drake Maye threw for 117 yards and a touchdown, completing 12 of 22 passes. Antonio Gibson led the team with 63 rushing yards on 12 carries, while DeMario Douglas had 4 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots converted only 2 of 10 third-down attempts.

In their 40-7 loss to the Chargers, the Patriots’ defense struggled to generate pressure, failing to record any sacks and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Patriots allowed 281 passing yards on 26 completions, with the Chargers completing 65% of their passes. New England’s run defense allowed 147 yards on 37 attempts, with the Patriots giving up three passing touchdowns.

On third downs, the Patriots allowed the Chargers to convert 58.8% of their opportunities, and they finished with a total of 428 offensive yards.