Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25

The Cowboys, with a +185 money line, will host the Washington Commanders on Sunday, January 5th at 1:00 ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The Commanders are favored at -227 on the money line and -4.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is set at 44 points for this week 18 NFC East matchup. You can watch this one on FOX.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +4.5

This game will be played at AT&T Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

WHY BET THE DALLAS COWBOYS:

• We have the Cowboys winning this one by a score of 25 to 22
• Not only do we have the Cowboys winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +4.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 44 points

Will The Commanders Win As Road Favorites?

Washington heads into week 18 against the Cowboys riding a four-game winning streak, including a 30-24 victory over the Falcons in week 17. This win improved their record to 11-5 and secured them a playoff spot. However, they have no chance of winning the NFC East, as the Eagles have already clinched the division. Washington is currently 6th in the NFC standings and 9th in our power rankings.

Washington is 10-5-1 against the spread this season, with a +5.6 scoring margin. They have covered in two straight games, including a 3.5-point spread against the Falcons. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 18, the Commanders are 6th in our offensive power rankings. They are 5th in the NFL in points per game (28.9) and 4th in yards per game (375.9). Washington has relied heavily on their run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game (156.6). They are 16th in passing yards per game, despite being 23rd in passing attempts.

Jayden Daniels has been consistent under center, throwing for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17, following a 5-touchdown performance in week 16. He has been sacked 14 times in his last 3 games. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with 8 catches for 85 yards in week 17, while Daniels rushed for 127 yards on 16 carries.

In Washington’s 30-24 overtime win over the Falcons, the Commanders’ defense limited Atlanta to a 20% conversion rate on third down. They allowed just 211 passing yards and forced one interception. The Commanders gave up 126 rushing yards on 23 attempts, with Atlanta averaging 5.5 yards per attempt on the ground.

Washington finished with two sacks and held Atlanta to 54.3% completions. Despite giving up 337 total yards, they were effective in critical situations and limited the Falcons’ scoring opportunities.

Are The Cowboys Going Win In At Upset At AT&T Stadium

Heading into week 18, the Cowboys sit 3rd in the NFC East at 7-9, with their playoff chances at 0.0%. They rank 28th in our power rankings. Dallas is 2-6 at home and 5-3 on the road, and they have a -7.1 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, they are 6-10, including a 5-8 record as underdogs and a 1-2 record as favorites. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in their last 3 games.

After two straight wins, the Cowboys couldn’t keep it going in week 17, losing 41-7 to the Eagles. Dallas was a 7.5-point underdog and failed to cover, and the 48 combined points were enough to hit the over. In week 16, the Cowboys beat the Bucs 26-24, and in week 15, they took down the Panthers 30-14.

Heading into week 18, the Cowboys rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.7, and 19th in yards per game with 324.3. Dallas ranks 11th in passing yards per game (227.1) and 3rd in pass attempts, averaging 37.7 per game. On the ground, they are 27th in rushing yards per game, with 97.2, on 24.4 attempts per game. The Cowboys are 22nd in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 36.5% of their attempts, but they are 8th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 17, Dallas scored just 7 points, all in the first quarter, in a 41-7 loss to the Eagles. Cooper Rush threw for 147 yards, going 15 of 28, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Rico Dowdle led the rushing attack with 104 yards on 23 carries, while Brandin Cooks had 4 catches for 52 yards. CeeDee Lamb, who had 105 receiving yards in week 16, is now on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.

In the Cowboys’ 41-7 loss to the Eagles, their defense struggled to generate any pressure, finishing with no sacks and just two quarterback hits. Despite allowing only 197 passing yards, they gave up three passing touchdowns and allowed the Eagles to complete 68.4% of their passes. Dallas’ run defense was also exploited, giving up 179 yards on 42 attempts.

Opponents found success on third downs against the Cowboys, converting 46.2% of their chances. Dallas will need to improve their run defense and find ways to pressure the quarterback in future games to have more success on the defensive side of the ball.