Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Betting Pick & Prediction 12/15/24

With the Dolphins and Texans both looking to improve their playoff chances, Miami and Houston will face off on Sunday, December 15th at 1:00 ET. The Texans are favored at -2.5 as they look to add to their record. This week 15 AFC matchup is being televised on CBS, with the Texans’ money line at -153 and the over/under line set at 47 points.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS HOUSTON TEXANS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Dolphins +2.5

This game will be played at NRG Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 15th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:

• We have the Texans winning this one by a score of 24 to 22
• Even though we like the Texans to win, our ATS pick is to take the Dolphins at +2.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 47 points

Will The Dolphins Pick Up A Win On The Road?

After dropping a week 13 matchup against the Packers, Miami bounced back with a 32-26 win over the Jets in week 14, bringing their record to 6-7. The Dolphins were favored by 6.5 points but couldn’t cover the spread, and the 58 combined points in the game went over the 45.5-point line. Before this, Miami had won three straight, including a 19-point victory over the Patriots in week 12.

Heading into week 15, the Dolphins have a 14.7% chance of making the playoffs and rank 16th in our NFL power rankings. Their average scoring margin this season is -2.2 points per game, and they are 5-8 against the spread. Their O/U record is 6-7, with their games averaging 42.8 points compared to an average line of 45.

Miami ranks 17th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 15, averaging 20.3 points per game (21st in the NFL) and 331.8 yards per game (19th). They are 9th in passing attempts, with 34.6 per game, and 14th in passing yards, averaging 226.5. On the ground, they rank 16th in rushing attempts and 24th in rushing yards, with 105.2 per game. The Dolphins are converting 39% of their third-down attempts (13th) and rank 17th in red zone conversion percentage.

Tua Tagovailoa has been on a hot streak, posting passer ratings of 104, 114, and 128 in his last three games. In week 14, he threw for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets, without an interception. Tyreek Hill led the team with 10 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown, while De’Von Achane had 24 rushing yards on 14 carries.

Even though the Dolphins allowed 319 passing yards to the Jets in their most recent game, they still came out on top in overtime, with a final score of 32-26. Miami’s defense gave up 402 total yards, but they managed to hold the Jets to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. The Dolphins also recorded three sacks and limited the Jets to 83 rushing yards on 21 attempts.

Despite allowing one passing touchdown, Miami’s defense put pressure on the quarterback, finishing with a +6 advantage in QB hits. The Dolphins also forced the Jets to settle for 8.2 passing yards per attempt, even though they allowed 27 completions (69.2% completion percentage).

Will The Texans Win At Home Over The Dolphins?

Heading into week 15, the Texans hold a slim lead in the AFC South with an 8-5 record. Our projections give them a 94.1% chance of winning the division and a 95.4% chance of making the playoffs. Houston is 12th in our power rankings. Their scoring margin this season is +1.5 points per game, and they are 5-7-1 against the spread.

In week 13, the Texans bounced back from a home loss to the Titans by beating the Jaguars 23-20 on the road. They were 3-point favorites in that game, so the win was a push against the spread. The combined score of 43 points was just under the 45-point line.

Heading into week 15, the Texans sit 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in points per game (23.7) and 18th in yards per game (335.2). Houston ranks 10th in passing attempts and 17th in passing yards per game (221.2). On the ground, they are 14th in rushing attempts and 16th in rushing yards per game (114.1). The Texans rank 19th in 3rd-down conversions and 18th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 8th in red zone attempts. They have been strong early in games, ranking 4th in the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.

C.J. Stroud threw for 242 yards (22/34) and a touchdown in week 13, posting a passer rating of 95. Joe Mixon rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries, while Nico Collins had 8 catches for 119 yards. Houston scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter and 7 in the 4th after being shut out in the 1st quarter. They converted 5 of 13 3rd-down attempts and went 1/3 in the red zone.

Despite not registering any sacks, the Texans’ defense came up with a key interception in their 23-20 win over the Jaguars. They held Jacksonville to 33.3% on third down and to 97 rushing yards on 25 attempts (3.9 per attempt). The Texans gave up 276 passing yards, with the Jaguars completing 24 passes for two touchdowns.

Overall, the Texans allowed 373 total yards and 276 passing yards. They also forced the Jaguars into a 57.1% completion percentage and limited them to 33.3% on third down.