Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/28/24

The Packers are favored on the money line at -177 as they get set to host the Dolphins at 8:20 ET on Thursday, November 28th. The Dolphins are +3.5 point underdogs on the road at Lambeau Field. This week 13 non-conference matchup is being televised on NBC, with the over/under line set at 47 points.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Dolphins +3.5

This game will be played at Lambeau Field at 8:20 ET on Thursday, November 28th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:

• We have the Dolphins winning this one by a score of 26 to 21
• Not only do we have the Dolphins winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 47 points

Will The Dolphins Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

The Dolphins head into week 13 on a three-game winning streak, including a 34-15 win over the Patriots in week 12. Miami was a 7.5-point favorite and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 5-6, with four straight wins. Their O/U record is also 5-6, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Miami is 5-6 this season and ranks 16th in our power rankings. They have a -1.9 scoring margin and a 19.6% chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins are 2-3 on the road and 3-3 at home, and they are 2-2 in division games.

Miami’s offense ranks 20th in our power rankings, averaging 19.5 points per game (22nd in the NFL) and 323.9 yards per game (19th). They are 15th in passing attempts, with 207.1 passing yards per game, and 8th in rushing attempts, averaging 116.8 rushing yards per game. On 3rd down, they convert 41.8% of the time, which ranks 10th in the league.

Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire, throwing for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 12, following a 288-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 11. Jaylen Waddle led the team with 144 receiving yards in week 12, and De’Von Achane had 32 rushing yards. Tyreek Hill is questionable for week 13 with a wrist injury.

In their 34-15 win over the Patriots, the Dolphins’ defense allowed just 182 passing yards and held New England to 21.4% on third down conversions. They also came up with four sacks and one interception, while allowing only 268 total yards. The Dolphins’ run defense gave up 86 yards on 21 attempts.

Miami’s defense limited New England to a 57.9% completion rate and gave up just one passing touchdown. They were effective in generating pressure, winning the QB hit differential by +6 and recording four sacks. The Dolphins’ secondary played well, allowing only 4.8 yards per attempt.

Are The Packers Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

With a 28-point win over the 49ers in week 12, the Packers improved to 8-3 and snapped a two-game losing streak. Green Bay was a 6.5-point favorite and easily covered the spread, but they failed to do so in their previous two games, including a narrow 20-19 win over the Bears in week 11. The Packers were favored by 6 points in that matchup.

Heading into week 13, Green Bay ranks 4th in our NFL power rankings and has a 97.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, they are 3rd in the NFC North with a 1-2 division record. Against the spread, the Packers are 5-6, with an average scoring margin of +5.9 points per game.

Jordan Love has put together some solid performances over the last three weeks, capped off by a 163-yard, 2-touchdown outing in week 12 against the 49ers. He finished with a passer rating of 107, completing 13 of 23 passes without an interception. Josh Jacobs led the rushing attack with 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 carries, while Romeo Doubs had 54 yards on 3 catches. Christian Watson had a 150-yard game in week 11, and Jayden Reed had 113 yards in week 10.

Heading into week 13, the Packers rank 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 8th in the NFL in points per game (26.2) and 5th in yards per game (381.9). Green Bay leans on the run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game, with 151.6. They are 26th in passing attempts, averaging 230.3 yards per game through the air.

In the Packers’ 38-10 win over the 49ers, their defense was outstanding, holding San Francisco to just 44 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Green Bay allowed only 241 total yards and 197 passing yards, with the 49ers managing just one touchdown. They also limited the 49ers to a 30% conversion rate on third down.

Green Bay’s defense picked off one pass, recorded two sacks, and had a good day on the defensive line, winning the tackles for loss battle. The Packers defended the pass well, allowing just 17 completions on 29 attempts (58.6% completion rate).