Los Angeles Rams vs New England Patriots Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/24
FOX will broadcast the week 11 non-conference matchup between the Rams and Patriots, which kicks off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th. The Patriots are the underdog at +175 on the money line, with the Rams favored by -4.5 points and the over/under line set at 43.5 points. The game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.
LOS ANGELES RAMS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New England Patriots +4.5
This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th.
WHY BET THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
- We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 25 to 20
- Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +4.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 43.5 points
Will The Rams Win As Road Favorites?
After two straight wins, the Rams couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 10, falling 23-15 at home to the Dolphins. Los Angeles entered the game as 2-point favorites but couldn’t get the job done, dropping their record to 4-5. They are now 3rd in the NFC West and sit 10th in the conference standings. Our projections give the Rams an 18.4% chance of making the playoffs and an 11.5% chance of winning the division.
Heading into week 11, the Rams are 18th in our NFL power rankings and have an average scoring margin of -3.6 points per game. Against the spread, they are 3-6, with a 1-2 record as favorites and a 2-3 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-5, with the under hitting in their last two games.
Heading into week 11, the Rams sit 16th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 20.6 points per game, which ranks 17th in the NFL. They also rank 17th in yards per game, with 328.7. Los Angeles has been pass-heavy, averaging 35.9 attempts per game (5th), resulting in 234.6 passing yards per game (8th). On the ground, they rank 26th in rushing yards per game, with 94.1, on 25 attempts per game. The Rams have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 34.6% of their attempts, which ranks 24th in the league.
Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards in week 10, completing 32 of 46 passes but failing to throw a touchdown while being intercepted once and sacked four times. Kyren Williams led the team in rushing with 62 yards on 15 carries, and Puka Nacua had 9 receptions for 98 yards. The Rams were shut out in the 1st and 3rd quarters against the Dolphins, scoring 9 points in the 4th quarter.
In their 23-15 loss to the Dolphins, the Rams’ defense allowed just 238 total yards. They defended the run well, giving up only 67 yards on 22 attempts. Against the pass, they allowed 171 yards and one touchdown, with the Dolphins completing 71.4% of their passes. The Rams also came up with one interception and recorded three sacks.
Despite their efforts, the Rams allowed Miami to convert on 46.2% of their third down attempts, which ultimately contributed to their defeat.
Are The Patriots Going Win In At Upset At Gillette Stadium
Heading into week 11, the Patriots hold a 3-7 record, ranking 30th in our NFL power rankings. They have a 1% chance of making the playoffs and 0% of winning the AFC East. New England is 1-3 at home and 2-4 on the road, including a 16-point win over the Bears in week 10. They were 6-point underdogs in that game but managed to cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 4-5-1. The Patriots have been the underdog in all of their games this season and are on a 3-game ATS winning streak.
New England’s O/U record stands at 5-5, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 38 points this season, compared to an average O/U line of 39.6.
Heading into week 11, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are also 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16, and rank 23rd in first-quarter scoring. New England ranks 32nd in both passing yards per game (156.8) and total yards per game (271.1). They are 18th in passing attempts and 17th in rushing attempts, with 114.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 22nd in the league. The Patriots are 24th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 34.6% success rate, but they rank 9th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 10, the Patriots scored 19 points in their win over the Bears, with 16 of those points coming in the first half. Drake Maye threw for 184 yards and a touchdown, completing 15 of 25 passes. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 74 yards on 20 carries, and Austin Hooper led the team in receiving with 3 catches for 64 yards. New England converted 5 of 14 3rd-down attempts and went 1 for 5 in the red zone.
Despite allowing the Bears to convert 3 of 4 fourth down attempts, the Patriots’ defense was outstanding in their most recent game, allowing just 142 yards and forcing nine sacks in a 19-3 win. Chicago managed only 69 passing yards and 73 rushing yards on 20 attempts. New England’s defense was tough on third down, allowing just a 7.1% conversion rate.
The Patriots’ defensive front dominated, not only recording nine sacks but also generating a lot of pressure with a +6 advantage in QB hits and a +13 advantage in tackles for loss.