Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Betting Pick & Prediction 11/10/24
The Saints are the underdog at +151 on the money line as they host the Falcons at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. On the point spread, the Falcons are -3.5, with their money line odds at -179. FOX is covering this week 10 NFC South matchup, and the over/under line is set at 46.5 points.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +3.5
This game will be played at Caesars Superdome at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th.
WHY BET THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
- We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 25 to 24
- Even though we like the Falcons to win, our ATS pick is to take the Saints at +3.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 46.5 points
Will The Falcons Win As Road Favorites?
Atlanta sits atop the NFC South with a 6-3 record, including a 4-0 mark in division play. The Falcons have won two straight games, including a 27-21 victory over the Cowboys in week 9. They were favored by 3 points in that matchup and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 5-4 this season. They are 4-3 as the favorite and 1-1 as the underdog.
Our projections give Atlanta an 80% chance of winning the division and an 86% chance of making the playoffs. They are currently 14th in our NFL power rankings. The average O/U line in their games has been 46.6 points, and they have an O/U record of 4-5.
Heading into week 10, the Falcons sit 8th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.6 points per game, and 8th in yards per game with 364.8. Atlanta ranks 6th in passing yards per game (246.3) on 33 attempts per game, which is 12th in the league. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing yards per game (118.4) and 19th in attempts.
Kirk Cousins has been on a roll, posting a passer rating of 144 in week 9, following his 276-yard, 4-touchdown game in week 8. Against the Cowboys, he threw for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 19 of 24 passes. Bijan Robinson had 19 carries for 86 yards, while Darnell Mooney led the team with 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown.
Atlanta’s defense gave up 137 rushing yards on just 21 attempts to the Cowboys in their most recent game. Despite this, the Falcons came out on top, winning 27-21. Dallas had 378 total yards, but Atlanta’s defense held them to just a 23.1% conversion rate on third down.
The Falcons allowed 241 passing yards, with Dallas completing 31 passes. Atlanta’s defense also recorded three sacks and held the Cowboys to a 62% completion percentage. However, they did give up two passing touchdowns.
Are The Saints Going Win In At Upset At Caesars Superdome
The Saints have now dropped seven straight games, including a 23-22 loss to the Panthers in week 9. New Orleans entered the game as 7-point favorites but couldn’t hold on for the win, leaving them at 2-7 this season. They rank 24th in our NFL power rankings and have just a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs. In division play, the Saints are 1-3, and they sit in 4th place in the NFC South.
Against the spread, New Orleans is 3-6 and has failed to cover in five straight games. Their average scoring margin this season is -2.4 points per game. The over has hit in six of their nine games, with an average of 48.4 points being scored in their matchups.
Heading into week 10, the Saints are 20th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 15th in points per game (23) and 16th in yards per game (331.4). New Orleans is 14th in passing attempts and 18th in passing yards per game, averaging 206.1. On the ground, they are 9th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game (125.3). The Saints are 16th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.1% success rate, and they rank 21st in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 10th in red zone attempts.
In week 9, Derek Carr threw for 236 yards and a touchdown, completing 18 of 31 passes. Alvin Kamara had a big game, rushing for 155 yards on 29 carries and leading the team in receiving with 6 catches for 60 yards. New Orleans scored 6 points in the 1st quarter, 7 in the 2nd, 3 in the 3rd, and 6 in the 4th. They converted 5 of 15 3rd-down attempts and went 2 for 4 in the red zone.
In the Saints’ 23-22 loss to the Panthers, their defense allowed just 166 passing yards on 16 completions. They also defended the run well, giving up only 80 yards on 23 attempts. Despite their strong defensive effort, the Saints were unable to come out with the win.
New Orleans held Carolina to 40% on third down and came up with one interception. The Saints’ offense struggled, which overshadowed a good defensive performance that limited the Panthers to just 246 total yards.