Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick & Prediction 11/10/24
The Chiefs are the heavy favorite in this one, with their money line odds at -431 compared to the Broncos at +329. The point spread is in favor of the Chiefs at -8.5, and the over/under line is 41.5 points. This week 10 AFC West matchup is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, and it is set to kick off at 1:00 ET. On the TV side, this one is on CBS.
DENVER BRONCOS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5
This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th.
WHY BET THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:
- We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 27 to 15
- Not only do we have the Chiefs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -8.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 41.5 points
Will The Broncos Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
After three straight wins, the Broncos couldn’t keep the streak going in week 9, falling 41-10 to the Ravens. Denver was a 9-point underdog in this game, but they were unable to keep it close, dropping their record to 5-4. Before this loss, the Broncos had picked up wins over the Panthers, Saints, and Raiders.
Heading into week 10, the Broncos have a 35.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.7% chance of winning the AFC West. They currently rank 27th in our NFL power rankings. Denver is 6-3 against the spread, with a +2.4 scoring margin. Their O/U record is also 6-3, with the over hitting in five straight games.
Heading into week 10, the Broncos sit 29th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 20.3 points per game, and 24th in yards per game with 308.6. Denver ranks 27th in passing yards per game (187.1) on 33 attempts per game (12th) and is 15th in rushing yards per game, averaging 121.4 on 27.3 attempts per game. They are 24th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 33.6% success rate.
In week 9, the Broncos struggled in a 41-10 loss to the Ravens, scoring all 10 points in the 2nd quarter. Bo Nix threw for 223 yards on 19/33 passing, with 1 interception and no touchdowns. Courtland Sutton led the team with 7 receptions for 122 yards, while Javonte Williams had 42 rushing yards on 12 carries. Denver converted 6 of 14 3rd downs and scored on 1 of 4 red zone trips.
In their most recent game, the Broncos’ defense gave up 269 yards through the air on 16 completions to the Ravens. The Broncos lost 41-10, allowing Baltimore to complete 84.2% of their passes for three touchdowns. Denver struggled to generate pressure, managing only one sack and losing both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.
On the ground, the Broncos gave up 127 rushing yards on 34 attempts, and their defense allowed the Ravens to convert on 37.5% of their third down attempts. The Broncos will be looking for a much better defensive performance in their next game after this disappointing showing.
Are The Chiefs Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
With a 30-24 win over the Buccaneers in week 9, the Chiefs improved to 8-0, giving them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 95.6% chance of winning the AFC West. Kansas City ranks 3rd in our power rankings, and they currently hold the top spot in the AFC. They are 4-0 at home and 4-0 on the road, including a 28-18 win over the 49ers in week 7 and a 27-20 win over the Raiders in week 8.
The Chiefs have a +7 scoring margin this season and are 4-3-1 against the spread. They have failed to cover in two straight games, including their win over the Bucs, where they were 8.5-point favorites. Their O/U record is 4-4, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Patrick Mahomes heads into week 10 with a questionable tag due to an ankle injury, but he’s coming off a strong performance in week 9, throwing for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception, completing 34 of 44 passes. This was a bounce-back from his 2-interception game in week 7 and 1 interception in week 8. Travis Kelce led the receiving corps with 14 catches for 100 yards, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 106 yards on 27 carries.
As a team, the Chiefs are 10th in the NFL in passing yards per game, averaging 230.1 yards, and they rank 5th in rushing attempts. They lead the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage at 53.2% but are 23rd in red zone conversion percentage. Kansas City is 9th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10.
In their 30-24 overtime win over the Buccaneers, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 189 yards passing and 284 total yards. The Chiefs allowed Tampa Bay to convert on 45.5% of their third down attempts and gave up two passing touchdowns. The Chiefs defended the run well, allowing just 95 yards on 19 attempts (5.0 yards per attempt).
Despite allowing 74.2% completions, the Chiefs limited big plays in the passing game. They had two sacks in the game but lost the QB hit differential by -3 and the tackles for loss differential by -5.