New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Betting Pick & Prediction 11/10/24

The Patriots and Bears are set to kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Soldier Field in Chicago. This week 10 non-conference matchup is being televised by FOX. The Bears are favored by -6 and have money line odds of -278, while the Patriots’ money line odds are +226. The over/under line is set at 39 points.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS CHICAGO BEARS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New England Patriots +6

This game will be played at Soldier Field at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th.

WHY BET THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

• We have the Bears winning this one by a score of 16 to 15
• Even though we like the Bears to win, our ATS pick is to take the Patriots at +6
• We see this game finishing below the line of 39 points

Will The Patriots Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 10, the Patriots sit at 2-7, putting them 32nd in our power rankings and giving them just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. New England is 1-4 on the road and 1-3 at home, with their only home win coming in week 8 against the Jets. They couldn’t build on that victory, though, falling 20-17 to the Titans in week 9. The Patriots were 3.5-point underdogs in that game, but they managed to cover the spread.

New England is 3-5-1 against the spread this season, with all of their games coming as the underdog. They have an average scoring margin of -8.4 points per game. Their O/U record is 5-4, with their games averaging 39.8 points per contest.

Heading into week 10, the Patriots sit 27th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 15.7, and are 31st in total yards per game with 264.8. Despite being 16th in passing attempts, New England is last in the league in passing yards per game, averaging 153.8. On the ground, they rank 23rd in rushing attempts and 24th in rushing yards per game, with 111. The Patriots are 23rd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate, converting 34.4%, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 6th with a 50% conversion rate.

In week 9, Drake Maye threw for 206 yards, completing 29 of 41 passes, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He was sacked 4 times. Maye also led the team in rushing, with 8 carries for 95 yards, while Hunter Henry had 7 receptions for 56 yards. The Patriots scored 17 points against the Titans, with 3 in the 2nd quarter and 7 in both the 3rd and 4th quarters.

In their 20-17 overtime loss to the Titans, the Patriots’ defense allowed 233 passing yards on 20 completions. Despite this, they did force one interception. New England struggled against the run, giving up 167 rushing yards on 39 attempts, with the Patriots’ offense racking up 400 total yards against them.

The Patriots allowed Tennessee to convert on 43.8% of their third down attempts and gave up two passing touchdowns. New England’s defense only managed one sack and had a tough time generating consistent pressure, as they lost both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in this one.

Are The Bears Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

After a three-game winning streak, the Bears have now dropped two straight, including a 29-9 road loss to the Cardinals in week 9. Chicago was unable to cover the 1.5-point spread, leaving them with a 5-3 ATS record this season. They are 3-0 as favorites but just 2-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record stands at 3-5, with the under hitting in their last two games.

Chicago is 4-4 overall and sits 19th in our power rankings, giving them a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 8th in the NFC and 4th in the NFC North. The Bears are 4-0 at home but 0-4 on the road. They’ll be back in Chicago in week 10 to face the Patriots.

Heading into week 10, the Bears rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.5, and are 27th in yards per game with 294.6. Chicago ranks 29th in passing yards per game (182.1) on 33 attempts per game (12th in the NFL). On the ground, they average 112.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd in the league, on 28 attempts per game. The Bears have struggled on third down, converting just 31.5% of their attempts, which ranks 28th in the NFL, but they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 50% of their opportunities, good for 6th in the league.

In week 9, Chicago scored just 9 points in a loss to the Cardinals, with all of their scoring coming in the 2nd quarter. Caleb Williams threw for 217 yards on 22/41 passing, while D’Andre Swift rushed for 51 yards on 16 carries. Rome Odunze led the team with 5 catches for 104 yards. The Bears struggled on third down, converting only 3 of 14 attempts, and failed to score on their lone red zone trip.

In their 29-9 loss to the Cardinals, the Bears’ defense gave up 213 rushing yards on just 34 attempts. Despite this, they held Arizona to 137 passing yards on 13 completions. The Bears’ defense also managed to sack the quarterback three times. Arizona finished with 350 total yards, and Chicago gave up a big 6.3 yards per attempt in the running game.