Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick & Prediction 11/10/24

The Colts, who are the underdog at +171 on the money line, will host the Buffalo Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Lucas Oil Stadium. Buffalo is favored by -4 on the road in this week 10 AFC matchup. You can catch this one on CBS, with the Bills’ money line odds at -205. The over/under line is set at 46 points.

BUFFALO BILLS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts +4

This game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th.

WHY BET THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:

• We have the Colts winning this one by a score of 21 to 19
• Not only do we have the Colts winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +4
• We see this game finishing below the line of 46 points

Will The Bills Win As Road Favorites?

With a 7-2 record, the Bills sit atop the AFC East and have a 98.5% chance of winning the division. They are also 4th in our power rankings, and we give them a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. Buffalo currently has a four-game winning streak, including a 30-27 win over the Dolphins in week 9. The Bills didn’t cover the 6-point spread in that game, but they easily covered in weeks 7 and 8, beating the Titans by 24 points and the Seahawks by 21.

Buffalo has an average scoring margin of +9.7 points per game and is 5-4 against the spread this season. They are 4-2 ATS as favorites and 1-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is also 5-4, with their games averaging 48.1 points compared to an average line of 45.8.

Josh Allen has been solid over the last three games, posting passer ratings of 95 in week 9, 102 in week 8, and 116 in week 7. In his week 9 performance against the Dolphins, he threw for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns on 25/39 passing, with one interception. Buffalo’s offensive line has done a good job protecting Allen, allowing just one sack in each of the last three games.

Buffalo ranks 4th in points per game, averaging 28.9, but they are 15th in the NFL in yards per game, with 335.2. They are 16th in passing yards per game and 17th in rushing yards per game. The Bills have struggled in the red zone, ranking 28th in the NFL with a 5.1% conversion rate.

In their 30-27 win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense allowed 373 total yards. Miami found some success in the running game, rushing for 149 yards on 31 attempts. Buffalo’s run defense allowed 4.8 yards per attempt. In the passing game, the Bills gave up 224 yards on 25 completions, with Miami completing 89.3% of their passes. Buffalo allowed two passing touchdowns and allowed the Dolphins to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. The Bills’ defense managed just one sack in the game.

Are The Colts Going Win In At Upset At Lucas Oil Stadium

Heading into week 10, the Colts are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 21-13 loss to the Vikings in week 9. This dropped their record to 4-5, leaving them 8th in the AFC and 2nd in the AFC South. Our projections give them a 37.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 9.7% chance of winning the division.

Despite their negative scoring margin (-0.6), the Colts are 7-2 against the spread, including a 5-1 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in four straight games.

Heading into week 10, the Colts are 23rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in scoring, averaging 20.9 points per game, and 22nd in passing yards, with 193.7 per game. On the ground, they rank 16th, with 121.3 rushing yards per game, on 26.1 attempts per contest. Indianapolis ranks 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.6% success rate, and they are 12th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 9, the Colts scored 13 points in their loss to the Vikings, with Joe Flacco throwing for 179 yards on 16/27 passing, with one interception. Jonathan Taylor led the team with 48 rushing yards on 13 carries, while Josh Downs had 6 receptions for 60 yards. Indianapolis struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 11 attempts.

In their 21-13 loss to the Vikings, the Colts’ defense gave up 415 yards and allowed 82.9% of passes to be completed. They did manage to force two interceptions and recorded four sacks. The Colts allowed Minnesota to convert on 50% of their third down attempts and gave up 133 rushing yards on 32 attempts.

Despite the 415 yards allowed, the Colts’ defense did well to limit the Vikings to just 21 points. They did allow three passing touchdowns and struggled to defend the big play, as the Vikings averaged 8.1 yards per passing attempt.