Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Pick & Prediction 11/3/24

The Colts and Vikings will face off on Sunday, November 3rd at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Vikings are the heavy favorite with a money line of -240, and they are favored by -5 points in this week nine non-conference matchup. The game, being played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, has an over/under line set at 46.5 points.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts +5

This game will be played at U.S. Bank Stadium at 8:20 ET on Sunday, November 3rd.

WHY BET THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:

• We have the Colts winning this one by a score of 22 to 17
• Not only do we have the Colts winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 46.5 points

Will The Colts Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 9 with a 4-4 record, the Colts have a 64% chance of making the playoffs and a 15.7% chance of winning the AFC South. They currently rank 9th in our NFL power rankings. After two straight wins, Indianapolis couldn’t make it three in a row, losing 23-20 to the Saints in week 8. Despite the loss, they covered the spread as 5-point underdogs, extending their ATS winning streak to six games.

Indy is 7-1 against the spread this season, including a 5-0 record as underdogs. Their average scoring margin is +0.4 points per game. Their O/U record is 3-5, with the under hitting in three straight games. The average O/U line in Colts games has been 43.7 points, with their games averaging 43.4 points.

Heading into week 9, the Colts rank 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 19th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.9, and 16th in yards per game with 326. Indianapolis is 19th in passing attempts per game and 20th in passing yards, averaging 198 per game. On the ground, they rank 15th in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing yards per game, with 128. The Colts are 19th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 17th in red zone conversion rate, despite being 9th in red zone attempts. They have been strong in the 1st quarter, ranking 5th in the league in points scored.

In week 8, Anthony Richardson threw for 175 yards, completing 10 of 32 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He was sacked 5 times. Jonathan Taylor led the rushing attack with 105 yards on 20 carries, while Josh Downs had 4 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown. The Colts struggled on 3rd down, converting just 2 of 13 attempts, but scored on 1 of their 2 red zone trips.

In their 23-20 loss to the Texans, the Colts’ defense allowed 267 passing yards and 96 rushing yards on 29 attempts. They held Houston to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down and recorded two sacks. The Colts also allowed the Texans to complete 67.6% of their passes and finish with 363 total yards.

Despite the loss, the Colts’ defense had a positive 5-2 advantage in tackles for loss compared to the Texans.

Are The Vikings Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

After starting the season with five straight wins, the Vikings have now dropped two in a row, including a 30-20 loss to the Rams in week 8. Minnesota was a 2.5-point favorite in that game, but the loss dropped their record to 5-2 and their NFC North record to 1-1. The Vikings now sit 3rd in the division and 6th in the NFC. Our projections give them a 67.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 10.5% chance of winning the division.

Heading into week 9, the Vikings rank 11th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +7.3 scoring margin this season and are 5-2 against the spread. They have covered in all three games they’ve been underdogs but are 2-2 as favorites. Their O/U record is 3-4, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 9, the Vikings are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 7th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 26.9, and lead the league in first-quarter scoring. Minnesota is 16th in passing yards per game (213.6) and 22nd in rushing yards, with 111.4 per game. They are 13th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, converting 39.5% of their attempts, and rank 11th in red zone conversion percentage.

Sam Darnold posted a passer rating of 128 in week 8, throwing for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18/25 passing. Justin Jefferson led the team with 8 catches for 115 yards, while Aaron Jones had 58 rushing yards on 19 carries. Minnesota scored 14 points in the first quarter against the Rams but managed just 6 points the rest of the game.

In their 30-20 loss to the Rams, the Vikings’ defense gave up four passing touchdowns and allowed the Rams to complete 73.5% of their passes for 279 yards. Minnesota’s defense struggled to get off the field, allowing the Rams to convert on 40% of their third downs. They also failed to record a sack in the game.

Despite their struggles, the Vikings did manage to force one interception. Offensively, the Rams finished with 386 total yards, and the Vikings’ run defense held up relatively well, allowing just 107 yards on 32 attempts (3.3 yards per attempt).