Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick & Prediction 11/4/24

ESPN will broadcast the week nine non-conference matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, taking place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game is set for 8:15 ET on Monday, November 4th. The Chiefs are heavily favored at -438 on the money line and -8.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 45.5 points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5

This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 8:15 ET on Monday, November 4th.

WHY BET THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:

• We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 29 to 23
• Even though we like the Chiefs to win, our ATS pick is to take the Buccaneers at +8.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 45.5 points

Will The Buccaneers Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

After a week 6 win over the Saints, the Buccaneers have now dropped two straight, including a 31-26 home loss to the Falcons in week 8. Tampa Bay was a 1.5-point underdog in that game and failed to cover the spread, bringing their record to 4-4 both straight up and against the spread. The Bucs rank 12th in our NFL power rankings and have a 48% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.

So far, Tampa Bay has an average scoring margin of +2.8 points per game and an O/U record of 6-2, with the over hitting in five straight games. Their contests have averaged 56 points, well above the 45.2-point average line. In division play, the Bucs are 1-2, but they have a 4-2 record against the NFC. They are 2-3 at home and 2-1 on the road.

Heading into week 9, the Buccaneers are 6th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29.4 points per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL. They are also 4th in the league in yards per game (389.5) and 2nd in passing yards per game, with 258.5 on 35.5 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing attempts and 10th in rushing yards per game, averaging 131 yards.

In week 8, Baker Mayfield threw for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 37 of 50 passes without an interception. Cade Otton led the team with 9 catches for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving had 44 rushing yards on 9 carries. The Bucs converted 9 of 14 third downs and scored on all 3 of their red zone trips.

In their 31-26 loss to the Falcons, the Buccaneers’ defense struggled to defend the big play in the passing game, as Atlanta averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and completed 79.3% of their passes. Tampa Bay allowed four passing touchdowns and gave up 265 yards through the air. They also struggled on third down, allowing the Falcons to convert 50% of their third down attempts.

On the positive side, Tampa Bay’s defense did generate two sacks and had a +4 differential in both quarterback hits and tackles for loss. However, the Falcons’ ability to connect on several big plays in the passing game contributed to the Buccaneers’ defeat.

Are The Chiefs Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

The Chiefs enter week 9 with a perfect 7-0 record, giving them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 96.4% chance of winning the AFC West. They currently rank 4th in our NFL power rankings. Against the spread, Kansas City is 4-2-1, with a +7.1 scoring margin this season.

In week 8, the Chiefs beat the Raiders 27-20 but couldn’t cover the 8.5-point spread. The combined score of 47 points went over the 43-point line. In week 7, Kansas City covered as 2.5-point underdogs, beating the 49ers 28-18.

Patrick Mahomes bounced back in week 8, posting a passer rating of 96 after completing 27 of 38 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. He had struggled in weeks 6 and 7, throwing three interceptions without a touchdown. Kareem Hunt led the rushing attack with 59 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, while Travis Kelce had 10 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City converted 12 of 16 third-down attempts and scored on 3 of 4 red zone trips.

Heading into week 9, the Chiefs rank 9th in the NFL with 24.7 points per game and 10th in total offense, averaging 348 yards per contest. They are 11th in passing yards and 13th in rushing, with Mahomes averaging 225.9 passing yards per game. Kansas City has been strong on third downs, converting 50.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league.

In their 27-20 win over the Raiders, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 33 rushing yards on 21 attempts, giving up only 1.6 yards per attempt on the ground. Against the pass, they allowed 195 yards, with Las Vegas completing 80% of their passes. The Chiefs’ defense recorded five sacks and held the Raiders to just 20 points, despite allowing two passing touchdowns.

On third downs, the Chiefs allowed the Raiders to convert 46.2% of their chances. Kansas City’s defense also forced the Raiders into negative plays, as they won the tackles for loss and QB hit differentials in the game.