Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick & Prediction 10/20/24

The 49ers are favored at -121 on the money line as they host the Chiefs at 4:25 ET on Sunday, October 20th at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. The Chiefs are +101 on the money line and +1.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is at 46.5 points for this non-conference matchup. The game will be televised on FOX.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

This game will be played at Levi’s Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, October 20th.

WHY BET THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:

  • We have the 49ers winning this one by a score of 23 to 22
  • Even though we like the 49ers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Chiefs at +1.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 46.5 points

Will The Chiefs Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Heading into week 7, the Chiefs sit atop our NFL power rankings with a 5-0 record and a +6.6 scoring margin. In week 5, they took care of business at home, defeating the Saints 26-13. Kansas City was favored by 5 points in the game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 3-1-1. The combined scoring of 39 points fell short of the 43-point line, marking the third straight game in which the under has hit in the Chiefs’ games.

Our projections give the Chiefs a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 93.7% chance of winning the AFC West. They are 1-0 in division games and 3-0 in conference play. Kansas City is 3-0 at home and 2-0 on the road, including a 22-17 win over the Falcons in week 3 and a 17-10 win over the Chargers in week 4.

Heading into week 7, the Chiefs are 13th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.6 points per game. They rank 11th in total offense with 354.6 yards per game, including 236.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 9th. Kansas City is 8th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate (42.6%) and red zone efficiency, converting 50% of their trips into touchdowns.

In week 5, Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards (28/39) against the Saints, but he didn’t have a touchdown pass and threw an interception. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team with 7 catches for 130 yards, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 102 yards on 27 carries. The Chiefs scored 10 points in the 4th quarter after being shut out in the 3rd.

In their 26-13 win over the Saints, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts. The Chiefs gave up 174 passing yards on 20 completions, with the Saints finishing with 220 total yards. Despite their good play against the run, the Chiefs allowed two passing touchdowns.

The Chiefs’ defense held the Saints to 40% on third down and came up with one interception. They also allowed just 5 yards per attempt in the passing game and held the Saints to a 57.1% completion percentage. Kansas City recorded one sack and had three more QB hits than the Saints.

Will The 49ers Win At Home Over The Chiefs?

Heading into week 7, the 49ers sit at 3-3, which is good enough to put them in first place in the NFC West. After a disappointing week 5 loss to the Cardinals, San Francisco bounced back with a 36-24 road win over the Seahawks. The 49ers were 3.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 3-3. They have been favored in all of their games so far and have an average scoring margin of +5.3 points per game.

According to our projections, the 49ers have a 62.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 57.5% chance of winning the NFC West. They rank 4th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 7. Their O/U record stands at 4-2, with their games averaging 48.7 points per game.

Heading into week 7, the 49ers are 6th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 7th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27 points per game, and are 2nd in passing yards with 262 per game, despite being 18th in pass attempts. On the ground, they are 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards, averaging 158 per game. San Francisco leads the league in red zone attempts but ranks 23rd in conversion percentage at 14.8%.

Brock Purdy bounced back in week 6, throwing for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns with a passer rating of 129 after a 2-interception game in week 5. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the team with 102 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Isaac Guerendo had 99 rushing yards on 10 carries. The 49ers scored 13 points in both the 2nd and 4th quarters against Seattle.

In the 49ers’ 36-24 win over the Seahawks, their defense allowed 306 passing yards on 30 completions. Despite this, they limited Seattle to just 52 rushing yards on 20 attempts. San Francisco’s defense also came up with two interceptions and held the Seahawks to a 43.8% conversion rate on third downs.

Even though they allowed 306 passing yards, the 49ers’ defense did a good job of limiting big plays, as the Seahawks managed only 5.9 yards per attempt. They also forced two turnovers and held Seattle to just 2.6 yards per attempt in the running game.