Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick & Prediction 10/20/24
FOX will broadcast this week seven AFC matchup between the Dolphins and Colts, which kicks off at 1:00 ET. The Colts are favored at -3.5, with a money line of -189. The Dolphins, currently +3.5 on the point spread, have a money line of +155. The over/under line is set at 43.5 points for this game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Dolphins +3.5
This game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 20th.
WHY BET THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:
- We have the Dolphins winning this one by a score of 21 to 15
- Not only do we have the Dolphins winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points
Will The Dolphins Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Heading into week 7, the Dolphins have a 2-3 record, putting them 2nd in the AFC East. After three straight losses, Miami bounced back with a 15-10 win over the Patriots in week 5. They were 2-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, but the 25 combined points fell short of the 37-point line.
Our power rankings have the Dolphins 31st, and we give them a 9% chance of making the playoffs. They are 1-4 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of -10.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 1-4, with their games averaging 34.6 points.
Heading into week 7, the Dolphins rank 31st in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 12, and 23rd in yards per game with 302.4. Miami has been strong in the red zone, ranking 2nd in conversion percentage, despite being 15th in red zone attempts. They are 26th in passing yards per game (185.6) on 32.2 attempts per game, and 18th in rushing yards per game (116.8) on 29.6 attempts per game.
In week 5, Tyler Huntley threw for 194 yards on 18/31 passing, with 1 interception. Tyreek Hill led the team with 6 catches for 69 yards, and Jaylen Wright had 86 rushing yards on 13 carries. Miami scored 6 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters against the Patriots, but converted only 2 of 11 third-down attempts.
Miami’s defense played a big role in their 15-10 win over the Patriots, giving up just 148 yards through the air. However, they struggled against the run, allowing 151 yards on only 19 attempts, with New England averaging 7.9 yards per attempt on the ground. The Dolphins limited the Patriots to 30.8% on third down and allowed just 18 completions on 34 attempts.
Despite their struggles against the run, Miami’s defense didn’t allow a single touchdown and came away with two sacks and four more quarterback hits than their opponents.
Are The Colts Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
After snapping a two-game losing streak with a 20-17 win over the Titans in week 6, the Colts are now 3-3 and sit 2nd in the AFC South. Our projections give them a 51.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 13.8% chance of winning the division. Heading into week 7, Indianapolis is 17th in our NFL power rankings.
So far, the Colts have a 0-point scoring margin but are 5-1 against the spread, including four straight ATS wins. They are 4-0 as underdogs and 1-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 3-3, with their games averaging 46.3 points compared to an average line of 43.4.
Heading into week 7, the Colts are 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.2, and 13th in yards per game with 336.8. Indianapolis ranks 17th in passing yards per game (219.2) and 17th in rushing yards per game (117.7). They have been strong on 3rd down, converting 42.7% of their attempts, which ranks 7th in the league, but they are 22nd in red zone conversion percentage despite ranking 6th in red zone attempts.
Joe Flacco threw for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 6, going 22/38 with one interception. Before that, he had a 359-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 5 and a 168-yard, 2-touchdown game in week 4. Josh Downs led the team in receiving in week 6 with 7 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown, while Tyler Goodson had 51 rushing yards on 8 carries.
The Colts’ defense played well in their most recent game, holding the Titans to just 95 yards passing on 16 completions. Despite struggling against the run, allowing 146 yards on 28 attempts, they still managed to come out on top, winning 20-17. The Colts picked off one pass and limited Tennessee to a 59.3% completion rate on their throws.
Indianapolis gave up one passing touchdown and didn’t record any sacks in the game. On third downs, they held the Titans to a 36.4% conversion rate. The Colts also had two more QB hits than the Titans, but they did lose the tackles for loss battle by -4.