Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Betting Pick & Prediction 10/13/24

The Patriots, at +254 on the money line, are big underdogs as they host the Texans at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Texans are favored by -7 on the road, and their money line odds are -314. The over/under line is set at 37.5 points for this AFC matchup, which is being televised on CBS.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New England Patriots +7

This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th.

WHY BET THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

• We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 20 to 15
• Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +7
• We see this game finishing below the line of 37.5 points

Will The Texans Win As Road Favorites?

With a 4-1 record, the Texans sit atop the AFC South and have an 89.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. They also have a 79.3% chance of winning the division. Houston has won two straight games, including a 23-20 victory over the Bills in week 5. The Texans were 1.5-point favorites in that game, and the 43 combined points fell short of the 47.5-point line.

Heading into week 6, the Texans rank 11th in our NFL power rankings. Despite being favored in all of their games, they are just 1-4 against the spread. Their average scoring margin is -2.4 points per game. Houston’s O/U record is 1-4, with the under hitting in four straight games.

Houston’s passing game has been a focal point this season, with the team ranking 3rd in pass attempts and leading the NFL with 272.4 passing yards per game. C.J. Stroud threw for 331 yards (28/38) and a touchdown in week 5, following his 345-yard performance in week 4. The Texans rank 10th in 3rd-down conversions with a 42.3% success rate.

On the ground, Houston ranks 23rd in rushing yards per game, averaging 104.2 yards. Cam Akers led the team with 42 yards on 9 carries in week 5. Heading into week 6, the Texans are 17th in our offensive power rankings, scoring 20.4 points per game, which ranks 18th in the NFL.

The Texans’ defense played well in their most recent game, holding the Bills to just 126 passing yards on 9 completions. Despite giving up 150 rushing yards on 28 attempts (5.4 yards per attempt), Houston came out on top in a 23-20 win, allowing Buffalo to convert just 21.4% of their third down attempts. The Texans’ defense also limited the Bills to a 30% completion percentage and recorded one sack.

Are The Patriots Going Win In At Upset At Gillette Stadium

Heading into week 6, the Patriots are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 15-10 home loss to the Dolphins in week 5. New England was a 2-point underdog in that game but couldn’t cover the spread, dropping their record to 1-4. Their only win came in week 1, when they beat the Bengals 16-10. Since then, they’ve lost to the Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, and Dolphins.

Our power rankings have the Patriots 31st this week, and we give them just a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs. Against the spread, New England is 1-3-1, with an average scoring margin of -8 points per game. The over/under record in their games is 2-3, with an average of 32.8 points scored.

Heading into week 6, the Patriots rank 27th in our offensive power rankings, with a scoring average of 12.4 points per game, placing them 29th in the NFL. They also rank 29th in passing yards per game, with 119.4, despite being 21st in passing attempts. On the ground, New England is 14th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game, averaging 131.4 yards.

Jacoby Brissett threw for 160 yards in week 5, completing 18 of 34 passes without a touchdown or interception. Demario Douglas led the team with 6 catches for 59 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 89 yards on 12 carries, including a touchdown. The Patriots scored 10 points in the first half against Miami but were shut out in the second half.

In their 15-10 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots’ defense allowed just 179 passing yards on 18 completions. They also managed to intercept a pass and held Miami to a 58.1% completion rate. However, the Patriots struggled to stop the run, giving up 193 rushing yards on 41 attempts, including a long run of 35 yards. Despite this, the Dolphins were only 3-of-13 on third down.

The Patriots’ defense did well on third downs, allowing the Dolphins to convert just 18.2% of their third down attempts. Additionally, they recorded three sacks and held Miami to just 15 points. New England’s offense, however, struggled, putting up only 10 points in the game.