SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Betting Pick & Prediction 10/5/24
ESPN will be covering the week six matchup between the SMU Mustangs and Louisville Cardinals, scheduled for 12:00 ET on Saturday, October 5th, at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville. The Cardinals are the -7-point favorites at home, with the over/under line set at 57 points. Both teams are coming in with just one loss, as SMU is 4-1 and Louisville is 3-1 this season.
SMU MUSTANGS VS LOUISVILLE CARDINALS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Louisville Cardinals -7
This game will be played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, October 5th.
WHY BET THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS:
- We have the Louisville Cardinals winning this one by a score of 30 to 19
- Not only do we have the Louisville Cardinals winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -7
- We see this game finishing below the line of 57 points
Will The SMU Mustangs Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
SMU enters Week 6 with a 4-1 record, ranked 19th in our power rankings. They have a 99.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and an 11.3% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. The Mustangs are also 23rd in the nation with a 13.2% chance of making the playoff.
SMU has been favored in three of their five games, going 2-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +20.8, and they are 2-2 against the spread this season.
The over/under line for this week is 57 points. SMU’s games have averaged 63.6 points, with an average over/under line of 54.1 points. Their over/under record is 2-2, with an average margin of +8.9 points.
SMU’s offense is averaging 42.2 points per game, placing them 12th in the nation in scoring heading into week 6. Their ground game is the focal point, with 41.6 rushing attempts per game, ranking 7th nationally, and they are 14th in rushing yards, averaging 217.2 per game. Brashard Smith leads the team with 506 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, and an impressive 7 yards per carry.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 733 yards, with six touchdowns and one interception. He has a passer rating of 104 and has completed 63.4% of his passes. SMU is 30th in third-down conversions, converting 46.4% of their attempts. Our power rankings place SMU’s offense 70th in the country.
SMU’s defense has been solid this season, allowing just 21.4 points per game, ranking them 43rd nationally. They’ve been particularly strong against the run, giving up only 91.6 rushing yards per game, which is the 20th-lowest in the country.
In their recent game against Florida State, SMU’s defense allowed just 16 points and forced three interceptions. They held Florida State to 73 rushing yards on 25 attempts and 222 passing yards.
Are The Louisville Cardinals Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Louisville enters Week 6 with a 3-1 record and a 2-0 mark at home. They are ranked 12th in our power rankings and have a 17.7% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. The Cardinals are projected to be bowl-eligible with a 96.3% probability.
Louisville is 2-0 as the favorite and 0-1 as the underdog this season, with a +25.5 average scoring margin. They are 2-1 against the spread, covering both home games as the favorite.
The over/under line for this week is 57, higher than their average line of 52.7. Louisville’s over/under record is 2-1, with their games averaging 57.5 points.
Louisville’s offense is averaging 41.5 points per game, ranking 16th in the nation, and they are 21st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Quarterback Tyler Shough has thrown for 1,114 yards with 11 touchdowns and just one interception, giving him a passer rating of 123. Louisville is 11th in passer rating nationally and 20th in completion percentage, completing 67.4% of their passes.
They are averaging 297 passing yards per game, ranking 40th, and are 38th in completions with 21.8 per game. On the ground, they are averaging 190.8 rushing yards per game. Isaac Brown leads the team with 245 rushing yards, averaging 8 yards per carry. Ja’Corey Brooks has 368 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 22 catches.
Louisville’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 15th nationally by allowing just 16 points per game. Even in their recent 31-24 loss to Notre Dame, the defense gave up only 283 total yards, including 120 rushing yards on 29 attempts and 163 passing yards.
Opponents are averaging 95.5 rushing yards per game against Louisville, while quarterbacks have a passer rating of 84.7 and are completing 64.6% of their passes, averaging 176.8 passing yards per game.