New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction 10/1/24

At 5:32 PM ET, the Mets and Brewers will square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -140 compared to the Mets at +119. The over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

New York will be looking for a win to improve their record to 90-73, but they will need to do so against the Brewers, who are 1st in the NL Central with a record of 93-69. Milwaukee is starting Freddy Peralta, while the Mets are sending Luis Severino to the mound. This game will be televised on ESPN.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -140

This game will be played at American Family Field at 5:32 ET on Tuesday, October 1st.

HOW TO BET THE METS VS BREWERS:

• We have the Brewers winning by a score of 4 to 3
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Mets to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 7 runs and like the under

Mets Records & Stats

New York closed out their series vs. the Braves with a 3-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Mets were at +263 on the money line. Things really got away from the Mets in the 2nd inning, as the Braves scored their only three runs in the inning. New York’s offense didn’t have a single hit until the 3rd inning and finished with just three hits.

Joey Lucchesi got the start for the Mets and took the loss. He actually pitched well, going six innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out five. However, the Mets offense scored a total of zero runs, so Lucchesi’s performance was wasted.

The Mets are 89-73 overall and trail the Phillies by six games for the NL East lead. New York is 30-22 against other teams in the division. The Mets will be looking to pick up a road win today, as they are 43-38 this season away from home.

As the favorite, the Mets have gone 59-39 this season and 30-34 as the underdog. They come into today’s game with an overall series record of 28-18-9, and they split their most recent series vs. the Braves. Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 5-5 over their last 10.

The Mets have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 82-80 overall. They have been even better on the run line on the road, going 44-37. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 37-27, compared to 45-53 as the favorite. Their average run margin overall is +0.4 runs per game.

When the Mets are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have played 109 games with higher over/under lines than this one, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 81-76, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Brewers on the road. So far, he has made 31 starts and has a record of 11-7. Severino’s ERA for the season is 3.91, along with a WHIP of 1.24. In his 31 appearances, he has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 7.96 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander has one complete game shutout this year. Looking back at his last outing, Severino took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 6th best home run hitting team in the league and have a collective batting average of .246.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Lindor hitting 33 homers and Alonso at 34. Lindor has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/17 in his last four games with two homers. Jose Iglesias has also been hot, going 7/20 in his last five games. Iglesias also has the longest active hitting streak on the team at 22 games.

Brewers Records & Stats

Milwaukee is 93-69 overall this season and leads the NL Central by ten games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have gone 32-20 in divisional games this year. They are closing out the series vs. the Mets today, leading the series 2-1.

At home, the Brewers are 47-34 this year, and they are 46-35 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee has gone 54-38 this year and 39-31 as the underdog. The Brewers have an overall series record of 29-18-4, and they have won five straight series on the road.

In games where the Brewers have been favored, they have gone 36-56 on the run line, while they have gone 46-24 on the run line as the underdog. Their average run differential in wins is +3.6, while their average run differential in losses is -2.9. Overall, they are 82-80 on the run line this season, including a 37-44 mark at home.

With an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season. The over/under record for the Brewers is 81-71, and their games have averaged a combined 8 runs per game. The over/under record for games with a line of 7.5 runs is 23-16, and 72.2% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs. The under has hit in the last two games for the Brewers.

Freddy Peralta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that outing, he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Looking back further, Peralta has made 32 starts and has a record of 11-9 this season. His ERA is 3.68, along with a WHIP of 1.22. Peralta has turned in 11 quality starts this year and is averaging 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has 200 strikeouts, which ranks 10th in the majors. Per nine innings, Peralta is averaging 3.52 walks.

William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers of late, going 7/23 in his last seven games. For the season, he is batting .281 with 23 homers and 92 RBIs. Willy Adames has been even better in terms of power, as he is 12th in the league with 32 homers and is 4th in the MLB with 112 RBIs. However, he is batting just .251 this season.

As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in batting average and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league.