Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/20/24
At 7:10 PM ET, the Braves and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Braves are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -203 compared to the Marlins at +171. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Charlie Morton will go for the Braves, while the Marlins are set to start Valente Bellozo. Atlanta is 83-70, while the Marlins are 56-97. Both teams have won two of their last three games.
MIAMI MARLINS VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline +171
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, September 20th.
HOW TO BET THE BRAVES VS MARLINS:
- We have the Marlins winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Braves Records & Stats
The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with a 15-3 win. After allowing three runs to the Reds in the 3rd, the Braves responded with three runs of their own. Atlanta went on to add another three runs in the 3rd inning.
Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going five innings and giving up just two earned runs, and picking up the win. Atlanta’s offense was carried by Michael Harris II, who went 3/5 with two homers and four RBIs.
Atlanta is on the road today, taking on the Marlins with an overall record of 83-70. The Braves are 3rd in the NL East, eight games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they are 24-22 in divisional matchups.
The Braves have won two straight games, and they took the final two games of their series vs. the Reds. This year, the Braves are 70-52 as the favorite and 30-23 when favored on the road. As for their overall road record, the Braves are 41-37 compared to a 42-33 mark at home. Atlanta’s series record is 26-17-7 this season.
When it comes to the run line, the Braves have been a better bet on the road this season, going 42-36. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and are 18-13 as an underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while it drops to -3.3 in their losses.
The Braves are on the road against the Marlins today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Atlanta’s games this season is 8.2 runs, and their over/under record is 58-90. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 14-26. Over the course of the season, 30.1% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher, while 43.8% have had lines set lower.
Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 8-8 with an ERA of 4.01. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 28 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 9.35 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Morton finished with a no-decision against the Dodgers, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
Marcell Ozuna comes into the game as one of the league’s top power hitters, as his 38 homers are 5th most in the league and the top mark on the Braves. Ozuna is also batting .306 for the season and has driven in 101 runs, which is 10th best in the league. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 28 homers and is batting .243 for the season.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 4th best home run hitting team and have the 6th best isolated power figure in the league. Over his last eight games, Michael Harris II is batting .314 with four homers and eight RBIs.
Marlins Records & Stats
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 20-4 loss. Miami was the +174 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Dodgers scored five times in the 3rd.
Miami started Edward Cabrera, and he took the loss, going only 2 1/3 innings, and giving up seven earned runs. The Marlins also used five other pitchers out of the bullpen, and none of them fared much better than Cabrera. Offensively, the Marlins only had one fewer hit than the Dodgers but scored just four runs. Griffin Conine had a homer but went only 1/3.
Miami is 56-97 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 35 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins are just 17-32 against other teams in the NL East. They are coming off losing two straight games to the Dodgers and are 2-8 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Marlins are 29-49 this season compared to a 27-48 mark on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 52-83 this season, and they are just 4-14 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 11-28-9, and they have dropped three straight series.
The Marlins are 33-45 on the run line at home this season, and they have failed to cover the run line in their last two games at home. Miami’s average run margin at home is -1.8, and they are 2-16 against the run line as the favorite this season.
The Miami Marlins are playing at home against the Atlanta Braves today, with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Marlins games this season is 9.1 runs, and their over/under record is 82-66. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, but when the line is set at 8.5, their record is 28-24. Overall, 20.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and their current over streak is at 3 games.
Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Braves at home. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.70 ERA. Bellozo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.29. In his 11 starts, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 6.02 strikeouts per nine innings. Bellozo most recently faced the Nationals, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts.
The Marlins offense comes into today’s game averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road this season, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is just .242, but they do have a few guys swinging the bat well right now. Jake Burger has gone 7/26 in his last seven games and is the team’s top home run hitter for the season. Otto Lopez has also been hot of late, going 9/26 in his last seven games.
Currently, Josh Bell is on a seven-game hitting streak, and Otto Lopez has also been hot of late, going 9/26 in his last seven games. Miami will be looking for more production out of their offense, as they are near the bottom of the league in both home runs and on-base percentage.