Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/4/24
Wednesday’s matchup between the Nationals and Marlins has a first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The Nationals are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -141 compared to the Marlins at +119. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
MacKenzie Gore is starting for the Nationals, and they are 62-76 this season, putting them 4th in the NL East. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East with a record of 51-87. Valente Bellozo is set to start for the Marlins.
MIAMI MARLINS VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline +119
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 6:40 ET on Wednesday, September 4th.
HOW TO BET THE NATIONALS VS MARLINS:
- We have the Marlins winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Washington cruised to a 6-2 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 4th inning, scoring three of their six runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were the slight favorites at -105.
Keibert Ruiz and Joey Gallo each homered for the Nationals, while Jacob Young went 3/3 with an RBI. Connor Norby was the only Marlins hitter to have more than one hit. He went 2/4 with an RBI.
Patrick Corbin pitched well for the Nationals in this one, going 5 2/3 innings and striking out eight without giving up a run. He picked up the win in the game. Max Meyer struggled on the mound for the Marlins, giving up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.
Nationals Records & Stats
Washington is 62-76 overall and trails the Phillies by 20 games in the NL East. Currently, they are in 4th place in the division and have gone 19-20 in divisional matchups. The Nationals won the first game of this series and have an overall series record of 17-23-3 this year.
At home, the Nationals are 32-37 this year, and they are just under .500 at 30-39 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 50-65 this year, compared to going 12-11 as the favorite. Washington has won two straight games as the favorite, and their overall record is 4-6 over their last ten.
Washington is 41-28 on the run line on the road this season, and they have covered the run line in their last two road games. They are 11-12 vs. the run line as the favorite, and 67-48 as the underdog. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.4, while it is -3.7 in losing games.
Washington Nationals are on the road against the Miami Marlins today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Nationals games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 66-67. The average over/under line for their games is 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 18-20. So far this season, 57 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs, which accounts for 41.3% of their games, while 43 games have had lower lines, making up 31.2% of their games.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 8-11 with a 4.45 ERA. In his 27 appearances, Gore has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 9.54 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Gore’s ERA at home is 5.11 compared to 4.83 on the road.
Washington’s offense has been pretty average this season, as they are 21st in runs per game at 4.2. This is the same number of runs they are averaging on the road and at home. The Nationals are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a team ISO of just .134, which is also 24th in the MLB.
Luis Garcia Jr. comes into the game with a team-high 63 RBIs and is batting .290. He is also 2nd on the team with 15 homers. CJ Abrams has gone deep 18 times this season but is batting just .242 overall. Over his last six games, Dylan Crews has two homers and is hitting .259. Andres Chaparro has also gone deep twice in this stretch but is batting just .200.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is 5th in the NL East, 31 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, the Marlins are 51-87 and trail the Nationals by 11 games. So far, they are just 13-27 in divisional games. The Marlins dropped the first game of this series vs. the Nationals.
At home, the Marlins are 25-45 compared to 26-42 on the road. Miami has struggled as the favorite this year, going just 4-14. As for their record as the underdog, the Marlins are 47-73, which includes having won two straight as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 11-25-7 and have lost four straight series at home.
The Marlins have a run line record of 64-74 this season, including a 29-41 mark at home. Their average run margin is -1.4 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 35-33 on the road. Miami has covered the run line in two straight games as an underdog and is 62-58 overall in that role. The Marlins’ average run margin in winning games is +2.7, compared to -3.8 in losses.
The Miami Marlins are playing as the home team against the Washington Nationals today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins and their opponents have combined for an average of 8.9 runs per game this season. Miami has a 75-59 over/under record on the year. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 25-21. So far this season, 26 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 18.8% of their games.
Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Nationals at home. Bellozo has made eight starts this year and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 4.32. Looking at his overall numbers, Bellozo has a WHIP of 1.34 and has issued 3.24 walks per nine innings compared to 6.91 strikeouts. He has only made one quality start this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up six earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Bellozo has allowed at least one homer in three straight starts.
Over his last three games, Derek Hill has gone 4/14 with three runs scored and two home runs. For the season, Hill is batting just .221, but his recent power surge is a good sign for the Marlins, as they are looking for someone to step up in the power department. Jake Burger has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are the 12th most in the league.
As a team, the Marlins are 29th in the league in runs scored at just 3.8 runs per game. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.5 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting a collective .241, which is 14th in the league, and are 22nd in home runs.