New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Pick & Prediction 9/8/24

The Patriots are +8.5 point underdogs on the road vs. the Bengals in a week one matchup. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th, is the first of the season for both teams. The Bengals are the heavy favorite with a money line of -431, while the Patriots’ money line odds are +332. CBS is set to televise this one, and the over/under line is at 40.5 points.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New England Patriots +8.5

This game will be played at Paycor Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th.

WHY BET THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

• We have the Bengals winning this one by a score of 24 to 17
• Even though we like the Bengals to win, our ATS pick is to take the Patriots at +8.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 40.5 points

Will The Patriots Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

The Patriots’ ATS record of 5-11-1 included a 4-7-1 mark as the underdog and a 1-4 showing as the favorite. New England struggled to a 4-13 record last season, failing to win a single non-conference game (0-5). Their only win as the favorite came in one of their three opportunities, and as the underdog, they went 3-9.

At home, the Patriots were 1-8, while on the road, they went 2-4. Against teams with above .500 records, they went 3-6-1 ATS, and against teams with below .500 records, they went 2-5 ATS. The Patriots’ over/under record was 7-10, with their games averaging 35.4 points per game. New England’s ATS record was 1-7-1 at home.

At home, the Patriots scored just 12.1 points per game last season, ranking 32nd in the NFL. Overall, their offense was one of the worst in the league, finishing 31st with 13.9 points per game. They were also 30th in yards per game (276.2) and 29th in yards per play (4.6).

New England struggled to move the ball through the air, ranking 28th in passing yards per game. They also had a tough time on third downs, finishing 27th in third-down conversion percentage, and their running game was 25th in both yards and attempts.

The Patriots’ defense was tough against the run last season, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt, the best mark in the league. Overall, they were the 4th best unit in the NFL, despite not pressuring the quarterback as much as they would have liked, finishing 22nd in QB hits and 17th in sacks.

New England allowed 21.5 points per game, ranking 14th in the league. They excelled in limiting opposing passing games, ranking 3rd in passing touchdowns allowed. Additionally, they held quarterbacks to a collective passer rating of 85.15, ranking 11th in the league.

Are The Bengals Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

The Patriots’ ATS record was 5-11-1, and they struggled to a 4-13 record overall last season. New England’s only win as a favorite came in one of their four wins, going 1-4 in that scenario. As underdogs, they were 3-9. They didn’t win a single non-conference game, going 0-5, and their only win as a favorite came in their final game of the season. Against teams within the AFC, the Patriots went 1-4.

At home, the Patriots went 1-8, while going 3-5 on the road. When favored, the Patriots were 1-4 ATS, and as underdogs, they were 4-7-1 ATS. Their ATS record vs. the spread was 4-7-1. The Patriots’ over/under record was 7-10, with their games averaging 35.4 points per game. Their ATS record vs. above .500 teams was 3-6-1, and vs. below .500 teams, it was 2-5.

At home, the Patriots managed just 12.1 points per game, ranking last in the league. Overall, they were the 31st-ranked offense, scoring only 13.9 points per game. New England struggled to move the ball, averaging only 276.2 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play, which ranked 30th and 29th, respectively.

Their struggles were particularly evident in the passing game, where they ranked 28th in yards per game. The Patriots also had the 3rd best red zone conversion percentage, but they were 27th in third down conversion percentage.

New England’s defense was one of the best at limiting big plays last season, giving up the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns and the 6th fewest rushing touchdowns. They also excelled in limiting big plays in the running game, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt, the best mark in the league. Overall, the Patriots were the 4th ranked defense based on power ratings, and they allowed 21.5 points per game, which was 14th in the NFL.

The Patriots also allowed just 208.4 passing yards per game, ranking 10th in the league. Despite not generating a lot of sacks (17th) and finishing 22nd in quarterback hits, they were 6th in yards allowed, giving up only 301.6 yards per game.