TENNIS: Preview of Weekend Event: The Winston-Salem Open

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The 2024 Winston-Salem Open, an ATP 250 outdoor hard court tournament, is coming to a conclusion this weekend with semi-final matches on Friday and the final Saturday. Sandwiched between back-to-back ATP 1000 events and the US Open, which begins on Monday, the event hasn’t attracted as much talent as it has in years’ past, leaving an unlikely semi-final pairing and a strong chance that someone wins their first ATP title this season.

Let’s take a look back at the early action this week and preview Friday’s semi-final matches.

Past Winston-Salem Winners

2023: Sebastian Baez def. Jiri Lehecka

2022: Adrian Mannarino def. Laslo Djere

2021: Ilya Ivashka def. Mikael Ymer

2019: Hubert Hurkacz def. Benoit Paire

2018: Daniil Medvedev def. Steve Johnson

Early Winston-Salem Recap

The Winston-Salem Open was turned upside down from the start of the competition with each of the top nine seeds losing their first match. Defending champion and top seed Sebastian Baez lost in straight sets in the second round to Borna Coric, while second seed Francisco Cerundolo also lost in straight sets to American Zachary Svajda. Adrian Mannarino, Mariano Navone, Nuno Borges, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were among the other top seeds eliminated early.

Only two of the top-12 seeds – Lorenzo Sonego and Alex Michelsen – are into the semi-finals. Veterans David Goffin and Pablo Carreno Busta are the other two semi-finalists. Goffin, who hasn’t won on the ATP Tour in two years, beat Rinky Hijikata in the quarter-finals, while Carreno Busta beat qualifier Learner Tien. Michelsen, a 19-year-old American, beat Christopher Eubanks 7-5, 6-7 (6), 7-6 (5) in a competitive quarter-final match and Sonego beat Pavel Kotov in straight sets.

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Semi-Final Matches

David Goffin (-145) vs. Lorenzo Sonego (+105)

This is the third meeting between Sonego and Goffin. They split their previous two matches, with Sonego winning on clay earlier this season at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and Goffin winning on indoor hard courts at the Open Sud de France in 2021. Sonego is the higher-ranked player, won the most recent match between the two players, and has been on court almost three hours fewer than Goffin, so it’s somewhat strange to see him as a considerable underdog.

I Like Sonego to win this match for all of those reasons. Goffin is 18-8 on hard courts this season, whereas Sonego is just 8-10, but many of Goffin’s wins have come in Challenger events against lesser opponents.

Alex Michelsen (-115) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (-115)

Michelsen is a player who is on the verge of breaking through as a legit threat on the ATP Tour. He has two Challenger titles and is ranked a career-best No. 52, whereas Carreno Busta is a clay court specialist whose best days are behind him; the 33-year-old was once a top-10 player but is now ranked No. 299. Carreno Busta is 8-6 this season, while Michelsen is 31-26, including 7-3 in his last 10 matches.

Michelsen is also 19-10 on hard courts. He won his first two matches in straight sets and should have tremendous confidence after his close victory over Eubanks. 

Winston-Salem Final Prediction

Assuming a Sonego-Michelsen final, I like the veteran Sonego to take the title. Michelsen’s time is coming soon, but it seems as though he might have to wait a bit longer. Sonego is a three-time winner on the ATP Tour.

Pick: Lorenzo Sonego def. Alex Michelsen

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