San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction 8/8/24
Thursday’s matchup between the Padres and Pirates has a first pitch set for 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are the slight favorite on the money line (-115), while the Padres’ money line odds are sitting at -104. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
MLBN will be televising this NL matchup, and the Padres will be looking to extend their four-game winning streak, as they are 63-52 overall. The Pirates are 56-57 and will be starting Luis L. Ortiz.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline -115
This game will be played at PNC Park at 12:35 ET on Thursday, August 8th.
HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS PIRATES:
- We have the Pirates winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Pirates to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
It was a wild game in the most recent game of this Padres vs Pirates series. San Diego went into the matchup as -161 favorites and squeaked out a 9-8 win. The Padres had to score three runs in the 9th inning to pick up the win.
Pittsburgh wasted a good outing from Marco Gonzales, as he gave up just two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Colin Holderman took the loss. Tanner Scott got the win out of the bullpen for the Padres as Michael King went just five innings, giving up three earned runs.
Offensively, the Padres were led by Jackson Merrill, who went 4/6 with two homers. He scored three times and drove in three runs. Kyle Higashioka also had a two-hit game with a homer.
Padres Records & Stats
San Diego is on a four-game winning streak, and they are 63-52 overall this season. The Padres are 3rd in the NL West, and they trail the Dodgers by three games for the division lead. So far, they have gone 19-18 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Padres are 30-29 this season, and they have gone 33-23 on the road. As the road favorite, the Padres have put together a record of 13-9 this season. San Diego has won five straight series, and they are 22-13-3 in series this year.
The Padres have a run differential of +0.5 runs per game this season. They have covered the run line in 61 of their 115 games, including a 39-17 mark on the road. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog (33-15) than as the favorite (28-39).
The Padres have played 20 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5, and the over has hit in 15 of those contests. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 61-53. The Padres have played 68 games with lower over/under lines than 8.5, and the percentage of their games with over/under lines set at 8.5 is 17.4%.
Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Pirates on the road. So far this season, he has made 16 starts and has a record of 3-6 with an ERA of 4.62. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.53, and opponents are batting .298 off the right-hander this year. In his last outing, Vásquez finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Vásquez has a 8.4 ERA on the road compared to 3.52 at home.
Heading into today’s game, the Padres are the top-hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .265. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. San Diego has been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. The Padres are also near the top of the league in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Jurickson Profar has been the Padres’ top power threat this season, as his 19 home runs are 1st on the team and 14th in the league. He also comes into the game with the 13th most RBIs in the league. Profar’s 71 RBIs are also the best mark on the Padres. Over his last seven games, Manny Machado has gone 11/29 with three homers.
Pirates Records & Stats
Pittsburgh is two games below .500 at 56-57 as they get set to host the Padres today. The Pirates have lost three straight games, and they trail the Brewers by eight games in the NL Central. So far, they are 17-15 in divisional games.
At home, the Pirates are 27-30 this year and 29-27 on the road. This season, the Pirates have really struggled as the underdog, going 32-36. As the favorite, Pittsburgh is 24-21. Heading into today’s game, the Pirates have an overall series record of 16-15-5.
Despite being a below-average team in terms of run differential, the Pirates have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 64-49. They have been particularly profitable on the road, where they are 35-21 against the run line. As the underdog, they are 47-21 against the run line, while as the favorite, they are just 17-28. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.2, while in losing games, it is -3.4.
When the Pittsburgh Pirates play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is exactly the team’s combined run average for the season. The Pirates’ over/under record for the season is 53-59, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the Pirates’ over/under record is 23-16. This season, 19 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 16.8% of their games. The majority of their games, 55 of them, have had over/under lines set below 8.5 runs, making up 48.7% of their games.
Luis L. Ortiz gets the start for the Pirates today and will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the Diamondbacks, he gave up three home runs. Overall, Ortiz has made six starts and 28 appearances. He has a record of 5-2, an ERA of 3.21, and a WHIP of 1.18. Looking at his home/away splits, Ortiz has an ERA of 3.91 at home compared to 3.5 on the road. Opponents are batting .229 this season vs. Ortiz.
So far this season, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the majors. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game, but at home, they are at just 4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .233, and their team on-base percentage is just .302.
Over his last six games, Joey Bart is hitting .409 with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, Bryan Reynolds is batting .288 and leads the Pirates with 68 RBIs. His 19 homers are also the best on the team and 14th in the league. Bryan De La Cruz is also a power threat, as he has 18 homers this season.