Preview of Weekend Event: Mubadala Citi DC Open
While all eyes are on the Olympics tennis tournament, there are other events ongoing this week, including the DC Open in Washington, D.C. The ATP 500 outdoor hard court event usually has a deeper field, but there are still some quality players left as we approach the quarter-finals beginning Friday. Five of the top-10 seeds, including top-ranked Andrey Rublev, are playing for the title.
ATP Citi Open Outrights
Andrey Rublev +300
Ben Shelton +350
Sebastian Korda +400
Frances Tiafoe +550
Denis Shapovalov +700
Alex Michelsen +700
Jordan Thompson +1100
Flavio Cobolli +1400
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Quarter-Final Matches
Flavio Cobolli (+165) vs. Alex Michelsen (-195)
Alex Michelsen, the second-lowest seed in the quarter-finals, has played great tennis through two matches in DC and is my pick to advance to the semis. He has consecutive straight set victories, whereas Flavio Cobolli has had to play two difficult matches to earn a spot in the semis. Cobolli beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1-6, 7-6 (0), 7-6 (7) in the third round, prior to which he beat David Goffin 7-6 (4), 6-3.
Denis Shapovalov (+113) vs. Ben Shelton (-139)
Denis Shapovalov and Ben Shelton will meet in a rematch of the third round at this past Wimbledon, when Shelton won in a competitive five-set match. Shelton, the world No. 14, is 11-7 on hard courts this year whereas Shapovalov is just 6-6 on the surface. Shapovalov has battled injuries and inconsistent play in the last few years, while Shelton is a fast-rising player who is likely to break into the top-10 in the near future. He’s a good bet to win and improve to 2-0 against the Canadian.
Sebastian Korda (-195) vs. Jordan Thompson (+165)
This is the first meeting between Sebastian Korda and Jordan Thompson and, because of that, I like the underdog Thompson to prevail. The Aussie has consecutive straight set victories, beating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 7-5, 6-4 and Reilly Opelka 6-4, 6-3. Korda needed three sets to beat Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis in the third round and previously beat Cristian Garin in two sets. Thompson is 8-2 in his last 10 matches and ranked No. 33 in the world, one spot below his career-best ranking.
Andrey Rublev (-185) vs. Frances Tiafoe (+150)
Expect another upset here with Frances Tiafoe becoming the third American into the semi-finals. Rublev had lost five of his last seven matches coming into the tournament and is 1-2 in his career against Tiafoe. The American typically performs well in the US as well – Tiafoe’s best results this year were a finals appearance in Houston, semi-final in Delray Beach, and quarter-final in Dallas and Atlanta.
Finals Prediction
Tiafoe is a player who is due for success this season. The four-time ATP Tour winner doesn’t have a title this season, but has come close in US-based tournaments. If he can upset Rublev, he would play the winner of Korda and Thompson and both of those are favorable matches. He’s the most experienced player in the draw and that should serve him well, potentially in an all-American final against Shelton.
Pick: Tiafoe def. Shelton